The record
Every fact, with its source.
535 dated facts from the last 125 stories: the figure, the story it comes from & the primary source the desk read. Nothing here is estimated; a correction on a story is listed on Corrections & updates.
| Date | Fact | Story | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deposit into anonymous wallet$2m, around 5:30pm ET, 30 October 2026 (Vanderbilt research) | Markets Polymarket probes trader’s $257,000 double poll win | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Ricketts odds shiftApproximately 67% before poll, about 79% after poll (Polymarket) | Markets Polymarket probes trader’s $257,000 double poll win | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Michigan Senate bet & profit$622,000+ wagered on Democratic nominee, $180,000+ profit | Markets Polymarket probes trader’s $257,000 double poll win | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Rehearing requestPanel rehearing & rehearing en banc both denied | Regulation Kalshi’s last stop now the Supreme Court after Nevada loss | www.legalsportsreport.com | |
| States covered by rulingNevada, Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington | Regulation Kalshi’s last stop now the Supreme Court after Nevada loss | www.legalsportsreport.com | |
| Sixth Circuit lossOhio & Tennessee gambling laws upheld against Kalshi's sports contracts | Regulation Kalshi’s last stop now the Supreme Court after Nevada loss | www.legalsportsreport.com | |
| Favourable rulingThird Circuit upheld Kalshi's New Jersey injunction 2-1 in April | Regulation Kalshi’s last stop now the Supreme Court after Nevada loss | www.legalsportsreport.com | |
| Q3 revenue$1.33bn, up 16% year-on-year (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings spends up to $700m to chase an ‘exceptional’ 2027 | www.intergameonline.com | |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance$175m-$275m (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings spends up to $700m to chase an ‘exceptional’ 2027 | www.intergameonline.com | |
| Predictions investment$650m-$700m of adjusted EBITDA for 2026 (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings spends up to $700m to chase an ‘exceptional’ 2027 | www.intergameonline.com | |
| Q4 Predictions spend$175m-$225m planned (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings spends up to $700m to chase an ‘exceptional’ 2027 | www.intergameonline.com | |
| 2027 revenue target$7.35bn, up 17% at midpoint (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings spends up to $700m to chase an ‘exceptional’ 2027 | www.intergameonline.com | |
| Memo timingCirculated several days before the US midterm elections (Front Office Sports) | Markets ESPN talent barred from using inside info on predictions | awfulannouncing.com | |
| Platform namedPolymarket named; Kalshi was not (FOS) | Markets ESPN talent barred from using inside info on predictions | awfulannouncing.com | |
| Prior policy2023 memo barred staff from betting on games or events they were assigned to cover (Action Network) | Markets ESPN talent barred from using inside info on predictions | awfulannouncing.com | |
| ESPNBet statusThe 2023 memo accompanied ESPNBet's launch; ESPNBet no longer exists | Markets ESPN talent barred from using inside info on predictions | awfulannouncing.com | |
| Criminal counts filed14, including one second-degree felony for a pattern of unlawful activity (Utah prosecutors) | Regulation Utah summons Kalshi’s Mansour & Lopes Lara on criminal charges | defirate.com | |
| Charges filedOctober 28, after a separate civil case filed earlier in October | Regulation Utah summons Kalshi’s Mansour & Lopes Lara on criminal charges | defirate.com | |
| Court appearanceDecember 4, 8:30am, Salt Lake City Third District Court (gaming attorney Daniel Wallach) | Regulation Utah summons Kalshi’s Mansour & Lopes Lara on criminal charges | defirate.com | |
| Federal challengeDOJ & CFTC sued October 26 seeking to block Utah's enforcement; TRO motion filed October 29 | Regulation Utah summons Kalshi’s Mansour & Lopes Lara on criminal charges | defirate.com | |
| Earlier court lossJudge Robert J. Shelby granted Utah summary judgment in August; Tenth Circuit denied injunction in September | Regulation Utah summons Kalshi’s Mansour & Lopes Lara on criminal charges | defirate.com | |
| Key disputeKalshi says its products are CFTC-regulated swaps, not gambling | Regulation Kalshi loses 2 more appeals as courts back state gambling laws | arstechnica.com | |
| Arkansas claimsKalshi failed to pay taxes or comply with gambling restrictions | Regulation Kalshi loses 2 more appeals as courts back state gambling laws | arstechnica.com | |
| Arkansas age limit21 for electronic wagering accounts | Regulation Kalshi loses 2 more appeals as courts back state gambling laws | arstechnica.com | |
| 2026 EBITDA guidance cut$175m-$275m, down from $700m-$900m (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings slashes 2026 profit guidance | www.pymnts.com | |
| Predictions spend this year$650m-$700m of adjusted EBITDA consumed (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings slashes 2026 profit guidance | www.pymnts.com | |
| Customer acquisition gap90% of gross-to-net revenue gap tied to new-customer incentives (CEO Jason Robins) | Markets DraftKings slashes 2026 profit guidance | www.pymnts.com | |
| 2027 Predictions revenue forecast$650m-$750m, with roughly $500m gross profit (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings slashes 2026 profit guidance | www.pymnts.com | |
| Combined take rate11.1% across brokerage, DKeX exchange & market-making in Sept-Oct (DraftKings) | Markets DraftKings slashes 2026 profit guidance | www.pymnts.com | |
| FanDuel US adjusted EBITDA$3m, down from $51m a year earlier (Flutter) | Markets FanDuel US profit falls 94% to $3m as Flutter backs predictions | readwrite.com | |
| Flutter group net loss$1.148bn, widened from $789m, tied partly to Brazil impairments (Flutter) | Markets FanDuel US profit falls 94% to $3m as Flutter backs predictions | readwrite.com | |
| FanDuel Predicts trading volume$119m, up 102% quarter-on-quarter (Flutter) | Markets FanDuel US profit falls 94% to $3m as Flutter backs predictions | readwrite.com | |
| Flutter leverage4.6x at quarter end, up from 3.7x in December 2025 (Flutter) | Markets FanDuel US profit falls 94% to $3m as Flutter backs predictions | readwrite.com | |
| FanDuel iGaming market share25.1%, down from 26.6% a year earlier (Citizens figures via NEXT.io) | Markets FanDuel US profit falls 94% to $3m as Flutter backs predictions | readwrite.com | |
| Kalshi volume from 18-21 year-olds (CNN, through August 2026)about $5.4bn | Markets Kalshi sets $2,500 monthly deposit limit for young traders | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Kalshi total trading volume year-to-date (August 2026)$170bn+ | Markets Kalshi sets $2,500 monthly deposit limit for young traders | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Share of Kalshi & Polymarket users under 35 (S&P Global Market Intelligence's Kagan unit)60%+ | Markets Kalshi sets $2,500 monthly deposit limit for young traders | cryptobriefing.com | |
| New default monthly deposit limit for 18-20 year-olds (Kalshi, introduced)$2,500 (27 October 2026) | Markets Kalshi sets $2,500 monthly deposit limit for young traders | cryptobriefing.com | |
| 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance$2.495bn, down $160m (Flutter) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| 2026 revenue guidance$17.61bn, down $300m from prior midpoint (Flutter) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| FanDuel 2026 adjusted EBITDA$715m, down 22% from 2025 (Flutter) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| Brazil impairment$873m non-cash charge (Flutter) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| Debt-to-EBITDA ratio4.6x at quarter end (Flutter) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| Share buybackspaused for 'foreseeable future' after $5bn programme approved Sept 2024 (CFO Rob Coldrake) | Markets Flutter CEO admits FanDuel predictions were ‘not competitive’ | sbcamericas.com | |
| Georgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms won by roughly 8 points; polls had Rick Jackson ahead by 1-3 points or tied (The New York Times polling database) | Markets Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record | www.fox4news.com | |
| Texas governorKalshi gave Hinojosa a 62% chance; she beat Abbott, who conceded | Markets Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record | www.fox4news.com | |
| Ohio governorKalshi gave Acton an 82% chance, Polymarket 83%; Acton beat Ramaswamy | Markets Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record | www.fox4news.com | |
| Senate sweepKalshi & Polymarket favoured James Talarico (TX), Troy Jackson (ME), Abdul El-Sayed (MI) & Sherrod Brown (OH); all four won | Markets Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record | www.fox4news.com | |
| Alaska SenateMarkets & polls favoured Peltola over Sullivan; result unresolved pending ranked-choice count | Markets Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record | www.fox4news.com | |
| Utah criminal chargesFiled against Kalshi, CEO Tarek Mansour & COO Luana Lopes Lara, last week | Regulation Arkansas AG: Kalshi wagers risk ‘depression’ & other mental harms | www.theblock.co | |
| Utah civil suitAlso names two Susquehanna trading firms | Regulation Arkansas AG: Kalshi wagers risk ‘depression’ & other mental harms | www.theblock.co | |
| CFTC counter-litigationSued at least 10 states over jurisdiction, according to The Block | Regulation Arkansas AG: Kalshi wagers risk ‘depression’ & other mental harms | www.theblock.co | |
| Arkansas suit filedWednesday, by AG Tim Griffin | Regulation Arkansas sues Kalshi, says Razorbacks bets are gambling | www.theblock.co | |
| Alleged harms citedexcessive wagering, financial losses, depression (Griffin) | Regulation Arkansas sues Kalshi, says Razorbacks bets are gambling | www.theblock.co | |
| Utah criminal chargesfiled against Kalshi, CEO Tarek Mansour & COO Luana Lopes Lara, Oct 29, 2026 | Regulation Arkansas sues Kalshi, says Razorbacks bets are gambling | www.theblock.co | |
| States sued by CFTCat least 10, over jurisdiction (The Block) | Regulation Arkansas sues Kalshi, says Razorbacks bets are gambling | www.theblock.co | |
| Republican Senate win margin in SC since Hollings' 1998 winDouble digits every race (Associated Press) | Politics Andrews stuns South Carolina, blindsiding prediction markets | www.hindustantimes.com | |
| Republican base support for Darline Graham vs Lindsey Graham in 2020About 8 in 10 vs about 9 in 10 (AP VoteCast) | Politics Andrews stuns South Carolina, blindsiding prediction markets | www.hindustantimes.com | |
| Petition filedAttorney general Letitia James | Regulation New York AG takes Kalshi to court over ‘no house’ ads | sbcamericas.com | |
| At issueKalshi's 'no house' ad claims disputed by the AG's office | Regulation New York AG takes Kalshi to court over ‘no house’ ads | sbcamericas.com | |
| ContextPart of an ongoing dispute between New York & Kalshi | Regulation New York AG takes Kalshi to court over ‘no house’ ads | sbcamericas.com | |
| Ohio Senate race (Kalshi)71% chance Sherrod Brown beats Jon Husted | Politics Traders price Democrats at 94% to take the House | www.theblock.co | |
| New Jersey Senate race (Kalshi)98% chance Cory Booker wins | Politics Traders price Democrats at 94% to take the House | www.theblock.co | |
| Injunction enteredBy Judge Martha Pacold, formalising her early-October ruling (Gambling Insider) | Regulation Illinois’s prediction market tax frozen by judge | sbcamericas.com | |
| Illinois transaction tax blocked1.75% rising to 3.5% after 5m transactions, part of the FY2027 budget | Regulation Illinois’s prediction market tax frozen by judge | sbcamericas.com | |
| Cases before the Seventh Circuit5 total: 3 from Illinois, 2 from Wisconsin | Regulation Illinois’s prediction market tax frozen by judge | sbcamericas.com | |
| Wisconsin caseCFTC's appeal of a July ruling denying it an injunction | Regulation Illinois’s prediction market tax frozen by judge | sbcamericas.com | |
| Wisconsin caseKalshi's appeal of a May ruling letting Ho-Chunk Nation's IGRA claims proceed | Regulation Illinois’s prediction market tax frozen by judge | sbcamericas.com | |
| Preliminary injunction deniedUS District Court for Minnesota & 10th Circuit refused Kalshi relief against Utah officials | Regulation Utah charges Kalshi bosses, rivals pull back contracts | defirate.com | |
| Pending appealKalshi's civil suit against Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, at the 10th Circuit | Regulation Utah charges Kalshi bosses, rivals pull back contracts | defirate.com | |
| Supreme Court petitionsThree petitions for review in two cases awaiting a SCOTUS decision | Regulation Utah charges Kalshi bosses, rivals pull back contracts | defirate.com | |
| Event contracts revenue$173m, up over 6x year over year (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood’s event contract revenue up 6x as crypto slumps 55% | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Crypto revenue$120m, down 55% year over year (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood’s event contract revenue up 6x as crypto slumps 55% | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Contracts traded16.4bn, a record, up over 7x (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood’s event contract revenue up 6x as crypto slumps 55% | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Rothera contracts traded6.4bn since launch (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood’s event contract revenue up 6x as crypto slumps 55% | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Connecticut actioncease-&-desist orders issued against Robinhood & others over sports-linked contracts | Markets Robinhood’s event contract revenue up 6x as crypto slumps 55% | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Anthropic S-1 filed26 October 2026, Nasdaq ticker ANT | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Expected IPO valuation$1.5tn-$2tn (market expectations) | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Last private valuation$965bn, after $65bn Series H in May 2026 | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Bitcoin market cap$1.55tn-$1.61tn, BTC near $77,000-$80,000 | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| H1 2026 revenue$16.3bn, up over 1300% year-on-year | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Alternative valuation estimate$1.475tn (NYU professor Aswath Damodaran) | Crypto Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Letter authorsSenators Cortez Masto, Rosen, Schiff & Blumenthal | Regulation Democrats accuse X of blocking reports on Polymarket ads | www.kucoin.com | |
| Letter disclosedFirst disclosed by Semafor | Regulation Democrats accuse X of blocking reports on Polymarket ads | www.kucoin.com | |
| Trump family link citedLetter alleges the gap could benefit President Trump & his family; Donald Trump Jr. has invested in Polymarket & serves as an adviser, per BlockBeats | Regulation Democrats accuse X of blocking reports on Polymarket ads | www.kucoin.com | |
| Charges filed13 counts of illegal gambling against Mansour & Lara, per the Associated Press | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| Federal rulingAugust ruling that Utah gambling law applies to prediction markets | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| Ohio fine$5m fine on Kalshi after Ohio won a federal lawsuit in March | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| New York suitLawsuit filed against Kalshi in August | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| Arizona chargesCriminal allegations filed by Arizona AG Kristin Mayes in March | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| DraftKings exitDraftKings ends Utah prediction market offerings this week | Regulation Utah files criminal charges against Kalshi’s CEO & COO | www.cardplayer.com | |
| States suedAt least 10, including Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois & Utah (CFTC) | Regulation Kalshi & Polymarket’s fate hangs on CFTC’s 10-state war | cryptobriefing.com | |
| First lawsuits filedApril 2026 | Regulation Kalshi & Polymarket’s fate hangs on CFTC’s 10-state war | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Selig's Supreme Court remark30 October 2026 | Regulation Kalshi & Polymarket’s fate hangs on CFTC’s 10-state war | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Preliminary injunctions wonArizona & Illinois (initial rulings favour CFTC) | Regulation Kalshi & Polymarket’s fate hangs on CFTC’s 10-state war | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Amicus briefs filed4 federal appeals courts & 1 state supreme court (as of late October 2026) | Regulation Kalshi & Polymarket’s fate hangs on CFTC’s 10-state war | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Total reimbursement programme$3.9m / £2.91m (Polymarket) | Markets Polymarket adds $1.2m goodwill on top of $2.7m refunds | www.ibtimes.co.uk | |
| Refunded to drained wallets$2.7m / £2.02m to 726 wallets (Polymarket) | Markets Polymarket adds $1.2m goodwill on top of $2.7m refunds | www.ibtimes.co.uk | |
| Wallets refunded in full as of 30 October689 of 726, rest processing (Polymarket) | Markets Polymarket adds $1.2m goodwill on top of $2.7m refunds | www.ibtimes.co.uk | |
| Tokens traced to suspected attacker wallet28.6m POL, ~$2.64m / £1.97m (The Hacker News) | Markets Polymarket adds $1.2m goodwill on top of $2.7m refunds | www.ibtimes.co.uk | |
| Trading halt durationabout 1 hour, resumed ~3pm ET, Thursday 29 October (Polymarket) | Markets Polymarket adds $1.2m goodwill on top of $2.7m refunds | www.ibtimes.co.uk | |
| Series G valuation$40bn post-money, led by Wellington Management & Sequoia Capital | Markets Kalshi’s valuation hits $40bn as it builds beyond betting | defirate.com | |
| Prior valuationUp nearly 82% from May's $22bn | Markets Kalshi’s valuation hits $40bn as it builds beyond betting | defirate.com | |
| Also in the roundAndreessen Horowitz, Baillie Gifford, Balyasny, CapitalG, Coatue, Hudson River Trading, Morgan Stanley Investment Management | Markets Kalshi’s valuation hits $40bn as it builds beyond betting | defirate.com | |
| CEO commentTarek Mansour told the New York Times funding builds out the product roadmap | Markets Kalshi’s valuation hits $40bn as it builds beyond betting | defirate.com | |
| Legal backdropStates challenging Kalshi's sports contracts, with a Supreme Court appearance reportedly imminent | Markets Kalshi’s valuation hits $40bn as it builds beyond betting | defirate.com | |
| Talarico implied win probability67.5% | Politics Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat | www.dallasobserver.com | |
| Paxton implied win probabilityabout 32% | Politics Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat | www.dallasobserver.com | |
| Money staked on the Senate race$51.6m across Kalshi & Polymarket; total is higher since other markets aren't counted (Prediction.com) | Politics Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat | www.dallasobserver.com | |
| Money staked on the governor's race$7.9m | Politics Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat | www.dallasobserver.com | |
| Underdog outperformance in 2026 primaries30% more wins than Kalshi odds implied (Campaign for Accountability, 29 Oct) | Politics Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat | www.dallasobserver.com | |
| Binance frozen so far$2.54bn in assets (Binance) | Crypto Polymarket pledges full refunds after alleged $2.7bn wallet theft | www.telesurenglish.net | |
| Attacker wallets allegedly receivedover $5.5bn, could exceed $5.7bn (later disclosures) | Crypto Polymarket pledges full refunds after alleged $2.7bn wallet theft | www.telesurenglish.net | |
| Polymarket alleged theft$2.65bn-$2.7bn from user wallets (reports) | Crypto Polymarket pledges full refunds after alleged $2.7bn wallet theft | www.telesurenglish.net | |
| Market liquidationsnearly $600m across exchanges in one hour (reports) | Crypto Polymarket pledges full refunds after alleged $2.7bn wallet theft | www.telesurenglish.net | |
| Bitcoin price movefell below $80,000 (reports) | Crypto Polymarket pledges full refunds after alleged $2.7bn wallet theft | www.telesurenglish.net | |
| Prediction markets run rate$200m+ a year (Coinbase, Q3) | Markets Coinbase’s prediction bet grows 82% a quarter | unchainedcrypto.com | |
| Revenue growth since launch82% compound quarterly rate (Coinbase) | Markets Coinbase’s prediction bet grows 82% a quarter | unchainedcrypto.com | |
| Daily prediction tradersUp more than 60% vs Q2 (Coinbase) | Markets Coinbase’s prediction bet grows 82% a quarter | unchainedcrypto.com | |
| Non-sports share of contractsOver 50% in Q3 (CFO Alesia Haas) | Markets Coinbase’s prediction bet grows 82% a quarter | unchainedcrypto.com | |
| Total company revenue$1.2bn, flat despite 10% market-wide volume drop (Coinbase) | Markets Coinbase’s prediction bet grows 82% a quarter | unchainedcrypto.com | |
| Breach disclosedThursday, via Polymarket's status page | Markets Polymarket halts trading after breach drains users’ accounts | www.coindesk.com | |
| Platform affectedPolymarket's international venue | Markets Polymarket halts trading after breach drains users’ accounts | www.coindesk.com | |
| CauseA compromised third-party provider, per Polymarket | Markets Polymarket halts trading after breach drains users’ accounts | www.coindesk.com | |
| Polymarket's responseIssue fixed, trading halted, case referred to law enforcement | Markets Polymarket halts trading after breach drains users’ accounts | www.coindesk.com | |
| User compensationPolymarket says affected users will be made whole | Markets Polymarket halts trading after breach drains users’ accounts | www.coindesk.com | |
| Cease-&-desist letter issued16 September (Missouri) | Regulation Kalshi sues Missouri, calls cease-&-desist impossible to meet | sbcamericas.com | |
| Original compliance deadline16 October, extended to 30 October (Missouri) | Regulation Kalshi sues Missouri, calls cease-&-desist impossible to meet | sbcamericas.com | |
| State refused enforcement guaranteeTuesday, per Kalshi (Missouri solicitor general) | Regulation Kalshi sues Missouri, calls cease-&-desist impossible to meet | sbcamericas.com | |
| Parallel caseNadex, which runs Crypto.com-backed OG.com, sues Utah same day as CFTC federal complaint | Regulation Kalshi sues Missouri, calls cease-&-desist impossible to meet | sbcamericas.com | |
| Utah's own suit against KalshiFiled 20 October, seeks to block contracts & recover alleged losses | Regulation Kalshi sues Missouri, calls cease-&-desist impossible to meet | sbcamericas.com | |
| States sued by the CFTC10 | Regulation Trump admin sues Utah to shield Kalshi after state’s win | arstechnica.com | |
| Utah's state court lawsuitfiled last week, seeks ban on Kalshi's sports, election & politics bets (Utah AG Derek Brown) | Regulation Trump admin sues Utah to shield Kalshi after state’s win | arstechnica.com | |
| Utah's constitutional gambling banone of only two such state bans in the US (Utah AG Derek Brown) | Regulation Trump admin sues Utah to shield Kalshi after state’s win | arstechnica.com | |
| Kalshi's earlier federal caselost to Utah after Kalshi sought to pre-empt state enforcement | Regulation Trump admin sues Utah to shield Kalshi after state’s win | arstechnica.com | |
| Operator pulling outQCX LLC, trading as Polymarket US (SBC Americas) | Regulation Polymarket pulls sports from Michigan, joins three rivals | sbcamericas.com | |
| Deadline to close positionsEnd of day Eastern Time, 25 November (SBC Americas) | Regulation Polymarket pulls sports from Michigan, joins three rivals | sbcamericas.com | |
| NFL policyBars players from investing in or endorsing sportsbooks & prediction markets (NFL, confirmed Wednesday) | Sports Eagles star Barkley says NFL forced Polymarket stake sale | www.essentiallysports.com | |
| MLB-Polymarket dealExclusive partnership worth about $300m over four years, signed March | Sports Eagles star Barkley says NFL forced Polymarket stake sale | www.essentiallysports.com | |
| NBA partnershipNamed Kalshi & Polymarket as preferred prediction-market partners this week | Sports Eagles star Barkley says NFL forced Polymarket stake sale | www.essentiallysports.com | |
| LeBron James dealPolymarket deal worth $15m a year | Sports Eagles star Barkley says NFL forced Polymarket stake sale | www.essentiallysports.com | |
| Barkley's Polymarket stakeRevealed in a September profile (Front Office Sports) | Sports NFL blocks players from Polymarket & Kalshi investments | frontofficesports.com | |
| MLB-Polymarket dealUp to $300m over four years, agreed in March (Front Office Sports) | Sports NFL blocks players from Polymarket & Kalshi investments | frontofficesports.com | |
| LeBron James-Polymarket deal$15m a year, focused on football promotion (Front Office Sports) | Sports NFL blocks players from Polymarket & Kalshi investments | frontofficesports.com | |
| NBA prediction-market partnersKalshi & Polymarket named this week, deal excludes the WNBA | Sports NFL blocks players from Polymarket & Kalshi investments | frontofficesports.com | |
| NHL prediction-market dealsKalshi & Polymarket, announced last October (Front Office Sports) | Sports NFL blocks players from Polymarket & Kalshi investments | frontofficesports.com | |
| Equity reportedly given to Álvarez$10m+ (source cited by Forbes) | Markets Kalshi bets $10m+ on boxer Canelo to win Spanish-speaking users | www.forbes.com | |
| Álvarez's new roleAmbassador & investor (Forbes) | Markets Kalshi bets $10m+ on boxer Canelo to win Spanish-speaking users | www.forbes.com | |
| Stated goalExpand Kalshi's Spanish-speaking user base (Forbes) | Markets Kalshi bets $10m+ on boxer Canelo to win Spanish-speaking users | www.forbes.com | |
| Prediction markets revenue$173m, up over 6x year on year (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood prediction bets top crypto revenue, $173m vs $120m | www.analyticsinsight.net | |
| Crypto transaction revenue$120m, down 55% year on year (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood prediction bets top crypto revenue, $173m vs $120m | www.analyticsinsight.net | |
| Total revenue$1.424bn, up 12% year on year, below the $1.43bn forecast (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood prediction bets top crypto revenue, $173m vs $120m | www.analyticsinsight.net | |
| Crypto trading volume$50bn across Robinhood & Bitstamp, down 38% (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood prediction bets top crypto revenue, $173m vs $120m | www.analyticsinsight.net | |
| Earnings per share$0.51, below the $0.55 analyst estimate (Robinhood) | Markets Robinhood prediction bets top crypto revenue, $173m vs $120m | www.analyticsinsight.net | |
| Investigations referred to CFTCAt least 2, per a person familiar with the probes, via NPR | Regulation Polymarket flags dozens of midterm bets, at least 2 go to CFTC | decrypt.co | |
| Polymarket's investigations unit16 staff, led by Shana Bautista, joined June | Regulation Polymarket flags dozens of midterm bets, at least 2 go to CFTC | decrypt.co | |
| Kalshi's enforcement150+ investigations opened, 20+ cases referred to law enforcement, per Kalshi | Regulation Polymarket flags dozens of midterm bets, at least 2 go to CFTC | decrypt.co | |
| Soldier's Maduro-raid betsAllegedly staked more than $33,000, won nearly $410,000; charged, pleaded not guilty | Regulation Polymarket flags dozens of midterm bets, at least 2 go to CFTC | decrypt.co | |
| S-1 filedOct 26, targeting Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT | Markets Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day | news.bitcoin.com | |
| Crypto derivatives valuation$1.86tn-$1.88tn implied on Binance & Bitget, Oct 25-26 | Markets Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day | news.bitcoin.com | |
| Polymarket favoured bracket$1.75tn-$2tn, 26% probability | Markets Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day | news.bitcoin.com | |
| Odds against IPO completingjust 4% by the market's Dec 31, 2027 resolution deadline | Markets Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day | news.bitcoin.com | |
| Prior private valuation$965bn at May 28 financing round (Defillama) | Markets Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day | news.bitcoin.com | |
| First-round resultBolsonaro won ~47% of the vote on 4 October (iGaming Business) | Politics Lula wins Brazil after Polymarket had him at 13.5% | igamingbusiness.com | |
| Lula's odds after round oneFell to 13.5% on Polymarket (iGaming Business) | Politics Lula wins Brazil after Polymarket had him at 13.5% | igamingbusiness.com | |
| Odds when polls closed~20% chance for Lula, against a 51%-49% poll lead for Bolsonaro (Smarkets CEO Jason Trost) | Politics Lula wins Brazil after Polymarket had him at 13.5% | igamingbusiness.com | |
| Concentration in Netanyahu backing18% of money held by a single account (Ofir, Mitts & Zimmermann study of 1.2m transactions) | Politics Polls show deadlock, but Polymarket backs Eisenkot over Netanyahu | www.jta.org | |
| Ofer Winter bets (suspected manipulation, per Ofir)$3,200 wagered by two new accounts briefly pushed Winter above Avigdor Lieberman in the market's candidate rankings | Politics Polls show deadlock, but Polymarket backs Eisenkot over Netanyahu | www.jta.org | |
| Combined annual deal valueEstimated $100m-$200m, including rights fees, media spend, data fees & revenue shares, per industry sources cited by Sports Business Journal | Sports NBA strikes prediction market deals with Kalshi & Polymarket | www.sportsbusinessjournal.com | |
| CFTC age-limit requestNBA asked to raise the minimum age for prediction trading from 18 to 21; CFTC did not grant it | Sports NBA strikes prediction market deals with Kalshi & Polymarket | www.sportsbusinessjournal.com | |
| Process startJanuary 2025, when Kalshi listed NBA champion & win-total futures | Sports NBA strikes prediction market deals with Kalshi & Polymarket | www.sportsbusinessjournal.com | |
| Polymarket's other league dealsNHL, ATP Tour, UFC & MLB; UFC & MLB deals exclusive | Sports NBA strikes prediction market deals with Kalshi & Polymarket | www.sportsbusinessjournal.com | |
| Age-21 policy adopted so farNovig only, among prediction operators | Sports NBA strikes prediction market deals with Kalshi & Polymarket | www.sportsbusinessjournal.com | |
| HOOD close, 23 Oct$95.07, down 1.56% on the day | Markets Robinhood hypes 15-minute bitcoin bets before earnings | financefeeds.com | |
| Event contracts traded, Q2 202613.6bn, over 10x year-earlier volume | Markets Robinhood hypes 15-minute bitcoin bets before earnings | financefeeds.com | |
| Director saleBaiju Bhatt's trust sold 50,912 shares at ~$101.40 on 21 Oct (SEC filing) | Markets Robinhood hypes 15-minute bitcoin bets before earnings | financefeeds.com | |
| Analyst targetsRosenblatt Buy, $135 target; JPMorgan Neutral, $115 target | Markets Robinhood hypes 15-minute bitcoin bets before earnings | financefeeds.com | |
| ForecastEx midterm volume$6.4m+ (Interactive Brokers-owned platform) | Politics Midterm trading tops $1.4bn as Kalshi leads with $1.1bn | www.kucoin.com | |
| Smarkets midterm volume~$200,000 among UK customers | Politics Midterm trading tops $1.4bn as Kalshi leads with $1.1bn | www.kucoin.com | |
| Candidates suspended by Kalshi6, for betting on their own races | Politics Midterm trading tops $1.4bn as Kalshi leads with $1.1bn | www.kucoin.com | |
| CFTC no-action letterIssued to Phantom in March 2026, later extended to other software providers | Markets Kalshi’s $291bn volume lands inside Phantom’s crypto wallet | www.theblock.co | |
| Restricted statesMichigan (sports), Nevada (sports, elections, politics, entertainment), Washington (those plus culture, science, tech, mentions, geopolitics) | Markets Kalshi’s $291bn volume lands inside Phantom’s crypto wallet | www.theblock.co | |
| Kalshi 2026 volumeMore than $291bn traded year to date, per The Block data | Markets Kalshi’s $291bn volume lands inside Phantom’s crypto wallet | www.theblock.co | |
| October 2026 volume$55.33bn so far, on pace to beat September's $59.32bn record | Markets Kalshi’s $291bn volume lands inside Phantom’s crypto wallet | www.theblock.co | |
| Trading fee$0.02 per contract plus a network fee, per Phantom's quoted feed | Markets Kalshi’s $291bn volume lands inside Phantom’s crypto wallet | www.theblock.co | |
| Fastest-growing contractsBitcoin, gold & oil price volatility, among the fastest-growing (Robinhood's JB Mackenzie) | Markets Robinhood’s bitcoin & gold contracts outpace sports growth | www.coindesk.com | |
| Largest September event contractFederal Reserve interest rate decision, not sports, reflecting growing interest in economic events | Markets Robinhood’s bitcoin & gold contracts outpace sports growth | www.coindesk.com | |
| Crypto contract settlement speedShortened from a week to 15 minutes | Markets Robinhood’s bitcoin & gold contracts outpace sports growth | www.coindesk.com | |
| Robinhood's $100m+ revenue businesses11 segments | Markets Robinhood’s bitcoin & gold contracts outpace sports growth | www.coindesk.com | |
| Inflation-swap market size$5.4tn (Bloomberg) | Markets Kalshi eyes slice of $7.6tn inflation market | www.financemagnates.com | |
| TIPS market size$2.2tn (Bloomberg) | Markets Kalshi eyes slice of $7.6tn inflation market | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Planned contract structurenext 12 monthly CPI periods, then May & November for four years | Markets Kalshi eyes slice of $7.6tn inflation market | www.financemagnates.com | |
| CPI product advisorMichael Ashton, working with Kalshi since August | Markets Kalshi eyes slice of $7.6tn inflation market | www.financemagnates.com | |
| Role held sinceJanuary 2024, chief marketing officer | Markets Polymarket reportedly fires marketing chief, CEO’s high school friend | www.coindesk.com | |
| Alleged conductTeam built fake webpage showing users profiting from fake trades (Wall Street Journal, June) | Markets Polymarket reportedly fires marketing chief, CEO’s high school friend | www.coindesk.com | |
| Regulatory statusCFTC investigating the webpage claims, no wrongdoing proven | Markets Polymarket reportedly fires marketing chief, CEO’s high school friend | www.coindesk.com | |
| Board compositionCoplan, investor Nick Tomaino, lawyer Alex Spiro, an unnamed Founders Fund partner | Markets Polymarket reportedly fires marketing chief, CEO’s high school friend | www.coindesk.com | |
| Texas Senate volume (Kalshi)$17.94m in October vs $5.96m for all September | Markets Texas Senate drives $104m midterm trading surge | defirate.com | |
| Texas Senate volume (four operators)approximately $21.7m in October 1-20 | Markets Texas Senate drives $104m midterm trading surge | defirate.com | |
| House-control volume (Kalshi)$22.33m in October, up from $7.28m in September 1-20 | Markets Texas Senate drives $104m midterm trading surge | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi election volume growthup 142% vs September 1-20, $79m total (76% of four-operator volume) | Markets Texas Senate drives $104m midterm trading surge | defirate.com | |
| Iowa governor's race (Polymarket US)$1.44m in October vs $296,475 in all September | Markets Texas Senate drives $104m midterm trading surge | defirate.com | |
| Preliminary injunction issuedSept. 1, 2026 (Ingham County Circuit Court) | Regulation Kalshi faces $500,000-a-day fine risk in Michigan contempt bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| Daily fine for noncomplianceRaised from $120,000 to $500,000 (court order) | Regulation Kalshi faces $500,000-a-day fine risk in Michigan contempt bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| Contempt motion filedSept. 29, 2026 (Michigan AG Dana Nessel) | Regulation Kalshi faces $500,000-a-day fine risk in Michigan contempt bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| Nevada penalty sought$120,000 daily plus legal fees (Nevada Gaming Control Board) | Regulation Kalshi faces $500,000-a-day fine risk in Michigan contempt bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| LeBron James's Polymarket deal$15m (Fadeaway World) | Markets Kalshi uses Dillon Brooks to mock LeBron’s Polymarket deal | fadeawayworld.net | |
| Brooks's X post about the ad20 October 2026 | Markets Kalshi uses Dillon Brooks to mock LeBron’s Polymarket deal | fadeawayworld.net | |
| Brooks's current teamPhoenix Suns | Markets Kalshi uses Dillon Brooks to mock LeBron’s Polymarket deal | fadeawayworld.net | |
| James's current teamPhiladelphia 76ers | Markets Kalshi uses Dillon Brooks to mock LeBron’s Polymarket deal | fadeawayworld.net | |
| Case nameQCX LLC v. Wilson et al (Law360) | Regulation Ohio officials face federal suit from Polymarket | sbcamericas.com | |
| Case number2:26-cv-01502 | Regulation Ohio officials face federal suit from Polymarket | sbcamericas.com | |
| CourtUS District Court, Southern District of Ohio | Regulation Ohio officials face federal suit from Polymarket | sbcamericas.com | |
| Nature of suitCivil rights: other | Regulation Ohio officials face federal suit from Polymarket | sbcamericas.com | |
| Date filed16 October 2026 | Regulation Ohio officials face federal suit from Polymarket | sbcamericas.com | |
| House controlDemocrats priced at 90% on both Polymarket & Kalshi | Politics Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House | www.freep.com | |
| Senate control (Polymarket)Democrats priced at 63% | Politics Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House | www.freep.com | |
| Senate control (Kalshi)Democrats priced at 65% | Politics Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House | www.freep.com | |
| Michigan Senate raceDemocrat Abdul El-Sayed priced at 68% on both platforms | Politics Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House | www.freep.com | |
| Michigan governor raceDemocrat Jocelyn Benson priced at 93% (Polymarket), 92.3% (Kalshi) | Politics Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House | www.freep.com | |
| Trading volume before removal$450,000+ (Front Office Sports) | Markets Polymarket pulls Cornell 7 charge market after $450k in bets | www.theverge.com | |
| Polymarket's defenceSaid the market offered "objective, data-driven insight" into the legal process | Markets Polymarket pulls Cornell 7 charge market after $450k in bets | www.theverge.com | |
| Kalshi tweet claim87% chance Tucker Carlson charged with a federal crime this year | Markets Kalshi deletes 87% Tucker Carlson crime-odds tweet | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Kalshi trade dataContracts traded as high as 88 cents (PunchUp) | Markets Kalshi deletes 87% Tucker Carlson crime-odds tweet | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Carlson market now7% charge chance on under $13,000 traded (PunchUp) | Markets Kalshi deletes 87% Tucker Carlson crime-odds tweet | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Spike triggerAppears to have come from a burst of trading on an illiquid market on 16 October | Markets Kalshi deletes 87% Tucker Carlson crime-odds tweet | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Alleged bets placed$33,034 on Polymarket (prosecutors) | Scandal A US soldier’s alleged $400k Maduro bet payout heads to trial | www.politico.com | |
| Alleged payoutmore than $400,000 (prosecutors) | Scandal A US soldier’s alleged $400k Maduro bet payout heads to trial | www.politico.com | |
| Legal argumentdefence says a prediction-market bet isn't a "swap" under the Commodity Exchange Act | Scandal A US soldier’s alleged $400k Maduro bet payout heads to trial | www.politico.com | |
| Judge overseeing caseUS District Judge Margaret Garnett | Scandal A US soldier’s alleged $400k Maduro bet payout heads to trial | www.politico.com | |
| Democrats opposed to election prediction markets69% (Reuters/Ipsos) | Regulation 69% of Democrats, 61% of GOP oppose election bets | www.kucoin.com | |
| Republicans opposed to election prediction markets61% (Reuters/Ipsos) | Regulation 69% of Democrats, 61% of GOP oppose election bets | www.kucoin.com | |
| Opposed to betting on pro sports43%, vs 29% in support (Reuters/Ipsos) | Regulation 69% of Democrats, 61% of GOP oppose election bets | www.kucoin.com | |
| Poll sample & dates4,506 US adults, 30 Sept-5 Oct (Reuters/Ipsos) | Regulation 69% of Democrats, 61% of GOP oppose election bets | www.kucoin.com | |
| States opposing CFTC jurisdiction39 states & DC filed amicus brief, reported 8 Oct (Cointelegraph) | Regulation 69% of Democrats, 61% of GOP oppose election bets | www.kucoin.com | |
| Novig trading volume, first week (August launch)$125m | Regulation Novig & Crypto.com sue Missouri over sports contract order | www.covers.com | |
| Operators targeted by the order8, including Novig & Crypto.com (Missouri AG) | Regulation Novig & Crypto.com sue Missouri over sports contract order | www.covers.com | |
| Licensing alternative tax rate10% (per Covers) | Regulation Novig & Crypto.com sue Missouri over sports contract order | www.covers.com | |
| Implied probability of S&P 500 at 8,000 by year-end31% (Polymarket) | Markets Traders put 31% odds on S&P 500 hitting 8,000 by year-end | www.moneycontrol.com | |
| Cited pressure on the rallySurging oil prices | Markets Traders put 31% odds on S&P 500 hitting 8,000 by year-end | www.moneycontrol.com | |
| Cited pressure on the rallyRising Treasury yields | Markets Traders put 31% odds on S&P 500 hitting 8,000 by year-end | www.moneycontrol.com | |
| Cited pressure on the rallyFresh AI trade jitters | Markets Traders put 31% odds on S&P 500 hitting 8,000 by year-end | www.moneycontrol.com | |
| Supreme Court termRuns through June 2027; justices have not yet agreed to hear the case | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| Gaming attorneys' timelineJustices could agree to hear the case December 2026 or January 2027, with a ruling by June 2027 | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| BetMGM Q3 net revenue$710m, up 7% year over year | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| BetMGM Q3 adjusted EBITDA$86m, up 112% year over year | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| Online sports betting handle$3.24bn, up 3% | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| Monthly active players878,000, down 3% year over year | Regulation BetMGM boss bets Supreme Court kills prediction markets | www.covers.com | |
| 2026 adjusted earnings forecastcut to $577m from $678m | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| Extra prediction market spendexpected in H2 2026, above $200m-$300m guidance | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| Q3 revenue forecastcut to $1.37bn from $1.397bn | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| US sports betting shareDraftKings 31.8% vs FanDuel 31.5% in partial Q3 state data | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| iGaming growthslowed to 5.4% in Q2, est. 6.9% in Q3 | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| Price target$44, Buy rating maintained | Markets DraftKings’ 2026 profit at risk from $100m prediction market spend | www.proactiveinvestors.com | |
| States now blockedConnecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, Ohio (Google Ads policy) | Regulation Google blocks prediction-market ads in five US states | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Latest additionConnecticut, added last week (Event Horizon) | Regulation Google blocks prediction-market ads in five US states | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Sports contracts already barredMichigan & Nevada | Regulation Google blocks prediction-market ads in five US states | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Policy requirementAdvertisers must hold local financial, commodity & or gaming licences & Google certification | Regulation Google blocks prediction-market ads in five US states | nexteventhorizon.substack.com | |
| Merger odds for announcement by 1 July 2027Risen from 45% to 50% (prediction market, via CNBC) | Markets Tesla-SpaceX merger odds pass 50% for early 2027 | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Recent analysesBarclays among those setting out possible merger scenarios | Markets Tesla-SpaceX merger odds pass 50% for early 2027 | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Crude oil sold before announcementat least 6m barrels of Brent & WTI in two minutes, over 8.5x the same window a week earlier | Scandal $2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn | www.kucoin.com | |
| S&P 500 futures tradedover $2bn notional value in a short pre-market window | Scandal $2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn | www.kucoin.com | |
| Price moves after Trump's Truth Social postBrent fell as much as 14%; US & European stocks rose about 4% | Scandal $2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn | www.kucoin.com | |
| Congressional demandSenator Elizabeth Warren says Selig & Gunewardena should brief Congress on the probe's progress & any enforcement action (statement, Tuesday) | Scandal $2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn | www.kucoin.com | |
| Tribe's responseAn Oklahoma tribe denies any such partnership exists (SBC Americas) | Regulation Oklahoma tribe denies Kalshi partnership claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| Suspicious wagers placed$19, $74 & $80, hours before Zacharia's appointment (Reuters) | Scandal Kalshi to probe trades on Trump’s press secretary pick | www.covers.com | |
| Largest expected payoutmore than $4,000 (Reuters) | Scandal Kalshi to probe trades on Trump’s press secretary pick | www.covers.com | |
| White House staff memoissued in March, warning against trading on nonpublic information | Scandal Kalshi to probe trades on Trump’s press secretary pick | www.covers.com | |
| $2.0tn-$2.25tn first-day market cap27.1% Yes, $305,987 volume (Polymarket) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 202921.5% Yes, $83,962 volume (Polymarket) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 202818.5% Yes (Polymarket) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 20279.5% Yes (Polymarket) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| No IPO by 31 Dec 20272.6% Yes, $84,754 volume (Polymarket) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| CNBC valuation of Anthropic$150bn vs $2tn target sought, cited by CNBC (7 October) | Markets Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge | cryptonews.com | |
| Zacharia 'Yes' contractsTraded near $0.01 for most of the market's life | Markets Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia | www.thelines.com | |
| Single trade profitA $19 stake reportedly netted the anonymous trader thousands of dollars | Markets Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia | www.thelines.com | |
| George Santos banLife ban from Kalshi after winning almost $18,000 on his own State of the Union attendance | Markets Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia | www.thelines.com | |
| Ex-White House teleprompter operator penaltyOrdered to pay over $172,000 for betting on a Trump 'mention market' | Markets Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia | www.thelines.com | |
| US soldier charged over Maduro intelligenceCharged with using classified information after allegedly making over $400,000 trading on Kalshi | Markets Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia | www.thelines.com | |
| 2026 trading volume$409.7bn (Artemis) | Regulation Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear | financefeeds.com | |
| 2023 trading volume$16.8bn across 31.9m trades (Artemis) | Regulation Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear | financefeeds.com | |
| Volume growth, 2023-2026Up more than 2,300% (Artemis) | Regulation Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear | financefeeds.com | |
| Market concentrationKalshi & Polymarket hold 89% of volume, $364.7bn, & 97% of trades | Regulation Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear | financefeeds.com | |
| Platform countGrown from 4 venues in 2023 to more than 11, including Hyperliquid's HIP-4 | Regulation Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear | financefeeds.com | |
| Low-end annual revenue loss estimate$7.3bn | Markets Prediction markets could cost gaming up to $39.4bn a year | sbcamericas.com | |
| High-end annual revenue loss estimate$39.4bn | Markets Prediction markets could cost gaming up to $39.4bn a year | sbcamericas.com | |
| NBA comment letter filed30 April 2026, to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission | Sports NBA wants trading data as NFL backs states in jurisdiction fight | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Proposed trading age floor21, per NBA's April submission | Sports NBA wants trading data as NFL backs states in jurisdiction fight | cryptobriefing.com | |
| NFL amicus brief on state oversightfiled 8 October 2026 | Sports NBA wants trading data as NFL backs states in jurisdiction fight | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Football's share of prediction market volume$1.8bn of $3.3bn on NFL's opening Sunday 2026 (NFL brief) | Sports NBA wants trading data as NFL backs states in jurisdiction fight | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Deal value$1.1bn upfront enterprise value for 100% of Underdog (IG Group) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Underdog Q3 revenue$105m, up 118% year on year (Underdog) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Deposited customersMore than 5.5m (Underdog) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Earn-outUp to $200m tied to 2026 revenue (IG Group) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Deal structure60% of equity value in 24.1m new IG shares, 40% cash via bridge facility (IG Group) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Deal announcedEnd of July 2026 (IG Group) | Markets IG Group’s $1.1bn Underdog deal chases US prediction bets | www.marketbeat.com | |
| Tribal gaming revenue$46.2bn record gross revenue in 2025, 56% from top 9% of facilities | Markets Four tribes break ranks & partner with Kalshi on apps | www.yogonet.com | |
| IGA reactionExecutive director Jason Giles accused Kalshi of 'selling them snake oil' (New York Post) | Markets Four tribes break ranks & partner with Kalshi on apps | www.yogonet.com | |
| Court splitTwo California tribes won a federal appeals ruling against Kalshi & Robinhood; a Wisconsin judge declined to block Kalshi on Ho-Chunk land | Markets Four tribes break ranks & partner with Kalshi on apps | www.yogonet.com | |
| Prior talks collapsedIGA's Victor Rocha emailed Kalshi's Sara Slane in early 2025: 'See you in court' | Markets Four tribes break ranks & partner with Kalshi on apps | www.yogonet.com | |
| Cease-&-desist letters sent9 exchanges, September (Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection) | Regulation Gemini, ProphetX & WeBull pull sports contracts in Connecticut | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi's injunction bidDenied by US District Court for Connecticut, now on appeal to the Second Circuit | Regulation Gemini, ProphetX & WeBull pull sports contracts in Connecticut | defirate.com | |
| Lawsuits filedCoinbase & Kalshi sue Attorney General William Tong; CFTC & Department of Justice sue Connecticut on preemption grounds; Tong sues Kalshi | Regulation Gemini, ProphetX & WeBull pull sports contracts in Connecticut | defirate.com | |
| Other letter recipientsCoinbase, Crypto.com, Novig, Polymarket, Robinhood, Underdog Predict; status unstated by officials | Regulation Gemini, ProphetX & WeBull pull sports contracts in Connecticut | defirate.com | |
| Staff decline21% below 10-year average by end of 2025 (US Office of Personnel Management) | Regulation CFTC enforcement cases drop 80% as crypto market explodes | www.npr.org | |
| Enforcement actionsdown nearly 80% vs decade average in 2025 (CFTC annual reports) | Regulation CFTC enforcement cases drop 80% as crypto market explodes | www.npr.org | |
| Single-year staff drop22% fall, January 2024 to January 2025 (US Office of Personnel Management) | Regulation CFTC enforcement cases drop 80% as crypto market explodes | www.npr.org | |
| Planned hiresroughly 100 new staff in mission-critical areas by end of 2026 (CFTC spokesman Zach Fulton) | Regulation CFTC enforcement cases drop 80% as crypto market explodes | www.npr.org | |
| Departureex-acting chair Caroline Pham left CFTC in December 2025, now chief legal & administrative officer at MoonPay | Regulation CFTC enforcement cases drop 80% as crypto market explodes | www.npr.org | |
| Filed2 October | Regulation Global regulators back New Jersey in Kalshi Supreme Court bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| GroupsIAGR & NAGRA | Regulation Global regulators back New Jersey in Kalshi Supreme Court bid | sbcamericas.com | |
| Ruling dateSept. 25, 2026 | Regulation Appeals court lets Tennessee & Ohio regulate Kalshi as gambling | www.tennessean.com | |
| States coveredTennessee & Ohio gambling laws not pre-empted by federal law | Regulation Appeals court lets Tennessee & Ohio regulate Kalshi as gambling | www.tennessean.com | |
| 9th Circuit (Nevada)ruled last month that Kalshi's contracts are subject to state gambling law | Regulation Appeals court lets Tennessee & Ohio regulate Kalshi as gambling | www.tennessean.com | |
| 3rd Circuit (New Jersey)ruled in April that Kalshi's contracts are not subject to state gambling law | Regulation Appeals court lets Tennessee & Ohio regulate Kalshi as gambling | www.tennessean.com | |
| Next moveNew Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to overturn the 3rd Circuit ruling | Regulation Appeals court lets Tennessee & Ohio regulate Kalshi as gambling | www.tennessean.com | |
| Response deadline16 October 2026 (OCCC) | Regulation Ohio gives 10 prediction-market firms until 16 October to quit | www.bettingnews.com | |
| Operators named10, including Robinhood, Coinbase & Polymarket (OCCC) | Regulation Ohio gives 10 prediction-market firms until 16 October to quit | www.bettingnews.com | |
| Key precedentSixth Circuit rejected Kalshi's bid to block Ohio & Tennessee enforcement | Regulation Ohio gives 10 prediction-market firms until 16 October to quit | www.bettingnews.com | |
| Political backingGovernor Mike DeWine calls prediction markets "really gambling, nothing more" | Regulation Ohio gives 10 prediction-market firms until 16 October to quit | www.bettingnews.com | |
| Gold contracts, September542m contracts (Blockonomi) | Markets Gold overtakes Ether on Kalshi as fees hit $5m | blockonomi.com | |
| Ethereum contracts, September318m contracts (Blockonomi) | Markets Gold overtakes Ether on Kalshi as fees hit $5m | blockonomi.com | |
| Bitcoin's September feesover 12x gold's take (Predict Charts) | Markets Gold overtakes Ether on Kalshi as fees hit $5m | blockonomi.com | |
| Commodities cumulative volume$400m in 7 months as of 8 September (Kalshi) | Markets Gold overtakes Ether on Kalshi as fees hit $5m | blockonomi.com | |
| Non-sports fee share, week to 5 October80% from short-duration contracts (InGame) | Markets Gold overtakes Ether on Kalshi as fees hit $5m | blockonomi.com | |
| Warning to firmsSelig warned firms that think they can get away with manipulative strategies or insider trading | Regulation CFTC says it has caught politicians trying to trade prediction markets | stocktwits.com | |
| Enforcement focusSelig said many of the CFTC's recent enforcement actions have targeted prediction markets | Regulation CFTC says it has caught politicians trying to trade prediction markets | stocktwits.com | |
| State regulation pushbackSelig says treating platforms as casinos would leave "an order book with absolutely no market-based controls in price" | Regulation CFTC says it has caught politicians trying to trade prediction markets | stocktwits.com | |
| Ruling date2 October 2026 (N.D. Illinois) | Regulation Illinois blocked from enforcing betting law on Kalshi & Coinbase | www.courtlistener.com | |
| JudgeMartha M. Pacold | Regulation Illinois blocked from enforcing betting law on Kalshi & Coinbase | www.courtlistener.com | |
| CaseCoinbase Fin. Mkts., Inc. v. Raoul, Nos. 1:25-cv-15406, 1:26-cv-03659, 1:26-cv-07363 | Regulation Illinois blocked from enforcing betting law on Kalshi & Coinbase | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Statute cited7 U.S.C. § 1a(47)(A)(ii), the federal swap definition | Regulation Illinois blocked from enforcing betting law on Kalshi & Coinbase | www.courtlistener.com | |
| InsiderAdvantage pollFlanagan 46%, Tafoya 45%, surveyed Sept 28-29 (DeFi Rate) | Politics Kalshi gives Flanagan 86% despite dead-heat Minnesota polls | defirate.com | |
| KSTP/SurveyUSA pollFlanagan & Tafoya tied at 42%, 12% undecided (DeFi Rate) | Politics Kalshi gives Flanagan 86% despite dead-heat Minnesota polls | defirate.com | |
| Flanagan's primary winBeat Rep. Angie Craig 59% to 39% in August primary (DeFi Rate) | Politics Kalshi gives Flanagan 86% despite dead-heat Minnesota polls | defirate.com | |
| NJ cert petition filed2 September 2026 (New Jersey) | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| Third Circuit ruling for Kalshi6 April 2026, KalshiEx LLC v. Flaherty | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| Sixth Circuit ruling against Kalshi25 September 2026, Kalshi v. Schuler | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| Ninth Circuit ruling against Kalshi28 August 2026, Kalshi v. Assad | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| Monthly trading volume, all prediction markets$53bn (Forbes) | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| North Carolina exchange fee tax6% of net trading fee revenue, enacted in 2026 budget | Regulation Supreme Court asked to settle $53bn-a-month prediction markets fight | www.forbes.com | |
| Kalshi recession price20% record low, posted 26 September 2026 | Markets Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| 2026 peak oddsmore than 30% to 50% earlier in the year | Markets Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Polymarket comparable contractslow-to-mid 20s to mid-30s in mid-to-late 2026 | Markets Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Contract windowQ4 2026 through Q4 2027, resolved by Bureau of Economic Analysis data | Markets Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Kalshi founded2018 by CEO Tarek Mansour & COO Luana Lopes Lara | Markets Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20% | cryptobriefing.com | |
| Weekly fine€420,000 per week (KSA) | Regulation Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court | www.gambling.com | |
| Total cap€840,000 maximum penalty (KSA) | Regulation Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court | www.gambling.com | |
| Entity finedAdventure One QSS Inc., operator of Polymarket (KSA notice) | Regulation Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court | www.gambling.com | |
| Prior appealRejected by the KSA before the new court case | Regulation Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court | www.gambling.com | |
| VenueCourt in The Hague | Regulation Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court | www.gambling.com | |
| Current priceYes 50%, No 50% | Politics Traders split 50-50 on Sánchez as next leader out | www.predictit.org | |
| FieldMarket covers 10 European leaders | Politics Traders split 50-50 on Sánchez as next leader out | www.predictit.org | |
| Kalshi donation to Becerra$39,200, refunded (campaign finance filing) | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Underdog Sports Holdings donation to Becerra$50,000, refunded (campaign finance filing) | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Becerra odds on Kalshi & Polymarket96% on both platforms, up from ~74% on Kalshi in late May | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi California governor market volume~$72m traded | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Polymarket California governor market$41m traded | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi California state lobbying, H1 2026$62,000 on three Assembly bills | Regulation Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96% | defirate.com | |
| Yes price now90% (Polymarket) | Politics Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Yes price 24 hours ago29% (Polymarket) | Politics Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Volume since market opened$1.1m (Polymarket) | Politics Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Market liquidity$176k (Polymarket) | Politics Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Market closes2026-10-05 (Polymarket) | Politics Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Kalshi 'out by February' price56% yes, 68% no (Kalshi) | Sports UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56% | www.si.com | |
| Season high this yearOver 75% at several points (SI) | Sports UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56% | www.si.com | |
| 2025 finish4-8 record, second-worst offence at 19.3 points per game (SI) | Sports UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56% | www.si.com | |
| 2026 start2-2, offence up to 25.0 points, defence down to 20.3 allowed (SI) | Sports UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56% | www.si.com | |
| Remaining schedule strengthThird toughest in the ACC, eight of nine foes at .500 or better (SI) | Sports UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56% | www.si.com | |
| Wood's moveAdded Kalshi to ARK ETF strategies (Cathie Wood, via Twitter) | Markets ARK’s Wood bets on Kalshi, eyes $5tn market | coinfomania.com | |
| Quote"Skating to where the prediction markets puck will be" (Cathie Wood) | Markets ARK’s Wood bets on Kalshi, eyes $5tn market | coinfomania.com | |
| RegulatorCommodity Futures Trading Commission oversees Kalshi's market | Markets ARK’s Wood bets on Kalshi, eyes $5tn market | coinfomania.com | |
| Trading dataKalshi's trading volume & price remain unreported (coinfomania.com) | Markets ARK’s Wood bets on Kalshi, eyes $5tn market | coinfomania.com | |
| New valuation$90m pre-money (Raven, led by Coinbase Ventures & CMCC Global) | Markets Raven’s prediction-market valuation more than triples to $90m | www.reuters.com | |
| Previous valuation$25m, set after a $2.7m seed round in 2024 (Hack VC-led) | Markets Raven’s prediction-market valuation more than triples to $90m | www.reuters.com | |
| Founded2023; began market-making in event contracts in Q2 2025 | Markets Raven’s prediction-market valuation more than triples to $90m | www.reuters.com | |
| New board memberCharlie Morris, CMCC co-founder | Markets Raven’s prediction-market valuation more than triples to $90m | www.reuters.com | |
| JudgeMartha M. Pacold, US District Court, N.D. Illinois | Regulation Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Cases resolved togetherCoinbase, CFTC/US & Kalshi dockets, plus intervenor plaintiffs Coalition for Fair Markets & North American Derivatives Exchange | Regulation Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Illinois transaction fee (new)1.75% on first 5m exchange wagers, 3.5% after, per fiscal year | Regulation Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Existing fees15% fee on gross sports wagering receipts under 230 ILCS 45/25-90(a); 25¢ or 50¢ per-wager fee under 230 ILCS 45/25-90(d-7) | Regulation Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Ruling date2 October 2026 | Regulation Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Total lobbying & donationsAt least $3m across Kalshi, Polymarket & the Coalition for Prediction Markets in 2026 (Truthout) | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| State AG letter44 state attorneys general told the CFTC in July prediction markets are a "new form of casino" | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| Kalshi federal lobbyingNearly $1m spent through 30 June 2026, including $240,000 to Miller Strategies | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| Kalshi New York spendOver $400,000 projected through July 2027 across two firms & in-house lobbyist Blake Bee | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| Kalshi California spend$62,000 on lobbying in the first half of 2026, per disclosure reports | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| Governors associations$100,000 to Republican & $150,000 to Democratic governors groups | Regulation 44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions | truthout.org | |
| New legal actionNew York attorney general & governor sue Polymarket, alleging unlicensed gambling | Regulation New York sues Polymarket as it rolls out self-exclusion tools | ijr.com | |
| New safeguardsDeposit limits with a delay, self-exclusion, addiction support via Birches Health partnership | Regulation New York sues Polymarket as it rolls out self-exclusion tools | ijr.com | |
| Core legal questionWhether federal event-contract oversight limits states' power to regulate platforms | Regulation New York sues Polymarket as it rolls out self-exclusion tools | ijr.com | |
| Nature of measuresVoluntary, not required by any state gambling law | Regulation New York sues Polymarket as it rolls out self-exclusion tools | ijr.com | |
| CFTC approval date28 September 2026, per CFTC notice | Regulation CFTC clears Coinbase to settle futures & swaps | defirate.com | |
| Scope of approvalFully collateralised futures, options on futures & swaps (CFTC) | Regulation CFTC clears Coinbase to settle futures & swaps | defirate.com | |
| Coinbase-Nodal Clear partnershipAnnounced June 2025, aims to bring USDC-collateral futures to market | Regulation CFTC clears Coinbase to settle futures & swaps | defirate.com | |
| Coinbase acquisitionThe Clearing Company, acquired December 2025 | Regulation CFTC clears Coinbase to settle futures & swaps | defirate.com | |
| Tokenised trading cardsPokémon card packs announced, physical card backs each digital pull | Regulation CFTC clears Coinbase to settle futures & swaps | defirate.com | |
| 24-hour volume$593k (Polymarket) | Markets Traders slash Fed hike odds from 35% to 16% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Yes price, 24 hours ago35% (Polymarket) | Markets Traders slash Fed hike odds from 35% to 16% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Yes price, now16% (Polymarket) | Markets Traders slash Fed hike odds from 35% to 16% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Prior sportsbook debt$75,000 in credit card & loan debt; $50,000+ to online sportsbooks (NPR) | Markets Kalshi volume hits $60bn a month as relapse stories mount | www.npr.org | |
| Bankruptcy filingLate 2023, federal court records cited by NPR | Markets Kalshi volume hits $60bn a month as relapse stories mount | www.npr.org | |
| Account closure requests3 separate email requests plus a chat request, before Kalshi barred him (NPR) | Markets Kalshi volume hits $60bn a month as relapse stories mount | www.npr.org | |
| Platform volumeNearly $60bn wagered on Kalshi last month vs $2.8bn a year earlier (TickerTracker, via NPR) | Markets Kalshi volume hits $60bn a month as relapse stories mount | www.npr.org | |
| Kalshi price for Raman60% to win, $98m traded (Kalshi) | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| Polymarket pricenear-identical odds, $14.7m traded (Polymarket) | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| Berkeley IGS/LA Times pollRaman 39%, Bass 28%, Sept 15-20, 2,150 likely voters, ~3-point margin of error | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| June primary resultBass 34%, Raman 29%, Spencer Pratt 26% | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| Bass unfavourability63% of poll respondents view her unfavourably | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| Palisades fire response rating56% rated Bass's response poor or very poor | Politics Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi | defirate.com | |
| Yes price before move18% | Politics Kansas Democrat odds jump 21pts to 39% on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price after move39% | Politics Kansas Democrat odds jump 21pts to 39% on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| No price61% | Politics Kansas Democrat odds jump 21pts to 39% on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| Polymarket US BTC volume before launch (Sept 15-21)$624,904 (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Polymarket US total BTC volume, first full week (Sept 23-29), ~162x the prior week$101.19m (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Polymarket US 15-min BTC volume, first full week$91.76m (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Daily 15-min BTC volume growth, Sept 23 to Sept 29$2.40m to $27.71m (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi 15-min BTC volume, first full week after its launch$226,000 (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Kalshi crypto volume, Sept 1-28$8.17bn, 86% from 15-min markets (DeFi Rate) | Markets Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x | defirate.com | |
| Yes price before99% (PredictIt) | Politics NC-11 Republican odds plunge 66 points to 33% in a day | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price now33% (PredictIt) | Politics NC-11 Republican odds plunge 66 points to 33% in a day | www.predictit.org | |
| One-day move-66 points (PredictIt) | Politics NC-11 Republican odds plunge 66 points to 33% in a day | www.predictit.org | |
| No price now67% (PredictIt) | Politics NC-11 Republican odds plunge 66 points to 33% in a day | www.predictit.org | |
| Volume publishednone (PredictIt) | Politics NC-11 Republican odds plunge 66 points to 33% in a day | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price 24 hours ago48% (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| Yes price now6% (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| 24-hour trading volume$252k (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| Total volume since market opened$751k (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| Market liquidity$55k (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| Market closes1 October 2026 (Polymarket) | Markets Traders bet big that Bitcoin holds above $82,500 this month | polymarket.com | |
| CFTC filingsTwo proposals sent to the White House's OIRA office | Regulation White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps | www.theblock.co | |
| Kalshi appealLost last week; Ohio & Tennessee can enforce sports gambling laws (federal appeals court) | Regulation White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps | www.theblock.co | |
| Supreme Court askNew Jersey attorney general Jennifer Davenport requested review earlier this month | Regulation White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps | www.theblock.co | |
| Rule statusCasino-exclusion rule at 'interim final rule' stage (OIRA) | Regulation White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps | www.theblock.co | |
| Market scaleKalshi & Polymarket each valued at tens of billions of dollars | Regulation White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps | www.theblock.co | |
| Yes price (Republican win)57% (PredictIt, 29 September 2026) | Politics Maine House race: Republican odds leap 23pts to 57% | www.predictit.org | |
| Previous day's price34% (PredictIt) | Politics Maine House race: Republican odds leap 23pts to 57% | www.predictit.org | |
| One-day change+23 points (PredictIt) | Politics Maine House race: Republican odds leap 23pts to 57% | www.predictit.org | |
| No price (any non-Republican winner)43% (PredictIt) | Politics Maine House race: Republican odds leap 23pts to 57% | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price 24 hours ago30% (Polymarket) | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| Yes price now50% (Polymarket) | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| 24-hour trading volume$603,000 (Polymarket) | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| Total volume since market opened$4.7m (Polymarket) | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| Market liquidity$272,000 (Polymarket) | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| Market closes29 October 2026 | Markets Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day | polymarket.com | |
| Weekly volume record$20.4bn, up from $19.8bn the prior week (Artemis) | Markets Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever | financefeeds.com | |
| Kalshi's share$15.8bn, about 77% of total volume (Artemis) | Markets Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever | financefeeds.com | |
| Polymarket's share$3.6bn, second place (Artemis) | Markets Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever | financefeeds.com | |
| Smaller venuesNadex $481.9m, Rothera $272.3m, Predict.fun & Opinion each over $120m (Artemis) | Markets Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever | financefeeds.com | |
| Court ruling6th Circuit ruled Ohio & Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, 25 September | Markets Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever | financefeeds.com | |
| Yes price a day earlier35% (PredictIt) | Markets Trump’s 38.8-39.0% approval contract jumps 25 points to 60% | www.predictit.org | |
| Volume disclosednone published (PredictIt) | Markets Trump’s 38.8-39.0% approval contract jumps 25 points to 60% | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price now60% (Kalshi) | Sports Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60% | kalshi.com | |
| Yes price a day earlier41% (Kalshi) | Sports Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60% | kalshi.com | |
| 24-hour trading volume250,596 contracts, $251k (Kalshi) | Sports Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60% | kalshi.com | |
| Total volume since market opened300,778 contracts (Kalshi) | Sports Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60% | kalshi.com | |
| Market closes3 November 2026 (Kalshi) | Sports Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60% | kalshi.com | |
| One-day change-28 points (PredictIt) | Politics Philippe’s French president odds crash 28pts to 20% | www.predictit.org | |
| Volume disclosednot published (PredictIt) | Politics Philippe’s French president odds crash 28pts to 20% | www.predictit.org | |
| Kalshi's share of weekly non-sports volume$9.6bn of $10bn (FinanceFeeds) | Markets Kalshi holds $9.6bn of $10bn weekly non-sports volume | financefeeds.com | |
| Co-CEO & Co-Founder commentLeif Abraham: prediction markets give agents "a new input: real-world events" | Markets Kalshi holds $9.6bn of $10bn weekly non-sports volume | financefeeds.com | |
| Regulator involvedKalshi is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market | Markets Kalshi holds $9.6bn of $10bn weekly non-sports volume | financefeeds.com | |
| Regulatory warningCFTC warned in February about fraud & misuse of nonpublic information in prediction markets | Markets Kalshi holds $9.6bn of $10bn weekly non-sports volume | financefeeds.com | |
| Kalshi priceCooper 94.5%, $2.3m traded (Kalshi) | Politics Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race | defirate.com | |
| Polymarket priceCooper 96%, just over $200,000 traded (Polymarket) | Politics Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race | defirate.com | |
| AARP pollCooper 53%, Whatley 42%, 1,115 likely voters, Sept 17-20, margin of error 2.9 points | Politics Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race | defirate.com | |
| Elon University pollCooper 49%, Whatley 38% (earlier this month) | Politics Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race | defirate.com | |
| Republican super PAC spendSenate Leadership Fund pledged $71m in North Carolina through Election Day; Trump-aligned PAC added roughly $5m | Politics Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race | defirate.com | |
| Yes odds now50% (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| One-day changeDown 20 points, from 70% to 50% (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| 24-hour volumeM11,637 in play money (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| Volume since launchM24,429 in play money (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| LiquidityM1,000 in play money (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| Market closes31 December 2043 (Manifold) | Play money Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50% | manifold.markets | |
| Novig campaign launchSept. 9, branded "Just Sports" (CryptoSlate) | Markets Novig, Kalshi chase fans as prediction markets go mainstream | cryptoslate.com | |
| Novig rewards tiersStarter to Obsidian, an optional points programme with trading credits & access to a monthly cash pool | Markets Novig, Kalshi chase fans as prediction markets go mainstream | cryptoslate.com | |
| Kalshi NHL dealofficial data, league branding & visibility during national broadcasts | Markets Novig, Kalshi chase fans as prediction markets go mainstream | cryptoslate.com | |
| Kalshi CNN dealmarket data fed into news programming | Markets Novig, Kalshi chase fans as prediction markets go mainstream | cryptoslate.com | |
| Yes price now77% (Kalshi) | Sports Fitzpatrick’s FedEx Open price climbs to 77% on Kalshi | kalshi.com | |
| Yes price a day earlier50% (Kalshi) | Sports Fitzpatrick’s FedEx Open price climbs to 77% on Kalshi | kalshi.com | |
| 24-hour volume285,107 contracts at $1 each (Kalshi) | Sports Fitzpatrick’s FedEx Open price climbs to 77% on Kalshi | kalshi.com | |
| Total volume since market opened819,709 contracts at $1 each (Kalshi) | Sports Fitzpatrick’s FedEx Open price climbs to 77% on Kalshi | kalshi.com | |
| Market closes2026-10-11 (Kalshi) | Sports Fitzpatrick’s FedEx Open price climbs to 77% on Kalshi | kalshi.com | |
| Yes price now24% | Play money Traders now doubt Donut Battery’s lithium-free claim at 76% | manifold.markets | |
| Yes price a day earlier40% | Play money Traders now doubt Donut Battery’s lithium-free claim at 76% | manifold.markets | |
| 24-hour trading volumeM34,460 in play money | Play money Traders now doubt Donut Battery’s lithium-free claim at 76% | manifold.markets | |
| LiquidityM100,000 in play money | Play money Traders now doubt Donut Battery’s lithium-free claim at 76% | manifold.markets | |
| Market closes1 January 2027 | Play money Traders now doubt Donut Battery’s lithium-free claim at 76% | manifold.markets | |
| Current priceDemocratic 'Yes' at 67% (PredictIt) | Markets 25-point swing hits PA-10 House race on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| Prior-day priceDemocratic 'Yes' at 92% (PredictIt) | Markets 25-point swing hits PA-10 House race on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| One-day move-25 points on 'Yes'; 'No' rose to 33% (PredictIt) | Markets 25-point swing hits PA-10 House race on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| Volume disclosureNot published; PredictIt caps trader positions & withholds volume | Markets 25-point swing hits PA-10 House race on PredictIt | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price (Republican to win), before57% (PredictIt) | Markets ME-02 Republican odds crash 23 points to 34% | www.predictit.org | |
| Yes price (Republican to win), now34% (PredictIt) | Markets ME-02 Republican odds crash 23 points to 34% | www.predictit.org | |
| One-day change-23 points (PredictIt) | Markets ME-02 Republican odds crash 23 points to 34% | www.predictit.org | |
| Implied 'No' price66% (PredictIt) | Markets ME-02 Republican odds crash 23 points to 34% | www.predictit.org | |
| Volume disclosednot published (PredictIt caps positions & withholds volume) | Markets ME-02 Republican odds crash 23 points to 34% | www.predictit.org | |
| Fraud attemptedFebruary 2026, via thousands of accounts linked to stolen debit cards (Wall Street Journal) | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| Deposit rejection rate80%+ flagged by Checkout.com, vs 1% industry norm | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| Prior CFTC penalty$1.4m fine, 2022 settlement over unregistered activity | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| DeparturesUS Chief Compliance Officer Andrew Clifford & US CEO Justin Hertzberg exited | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| Internal reviewSullivan & Cromwell review found Polymarket remained compliant, according to the review | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| May 2026 clean-upStricter controls, debit-card limits per account & Riskified hired to bolster fraud detection | Scandal Polymarket rules eased before $10m fraud attack | www.msn.com | |
| New York v PolymarketFiled by New York's AG & Governor | Regulation New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| New York v KalshiLaunched July 2026 | Regulation New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| New York v Coinbase Financial Markets & Gemini TitanFiled April 2026 | Regulation New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| 3rd Circuit rulingSided with the CFTC over New Jersey | Regulation New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| 9th Circuit rulingSided with Nevada against Kalshi, last month (Engadget) | Regulation New York sues Polymarket over illegal gambling claim | sbcamericas.com | |
| Six-state lawsuitsplaintiffs across six states have filed suits seeking to recoup losses under state gambling statutes | Markets 13.6bn contracts traded: Robinhood’s prediction bet pays off | blockonomi.com | |
| Missouri orderattorney general ordered Robinhood & 5 rivals to halt sports contracts statewide | Markets 13.6bn contracts traded: Robinhood’s prediction bet pays off | blockonomi.com | |
| Federal appeals court rulinglate August, favoured two Native American tribes & backed Nevada's right to enforce gambling rules on Robinhood | Markets 13.6bn contracts traded: Robinhood’s prediction bet pays off | blockonomi.com | |
| Bettors reducing sportsbook use35% (Fullstory survey) | Regulation 35% of bettors cut sportsbook use for prediction markets | www.casino.org | |
| Bettors saying markets change behaviour60% (Fullstory survey) | Regulation 35% of bettors cut sportsbook use for prediction markets | www.casino.org | |
| Bettors using both platforms by event25% (Fullstory survey) | Regulation 35% of bettors cut sportsbook use for prediction markets | www.casino.org | |
| Consumers who've traded sports event contracts62% (Fullstory survey) | Regulation 35% of bettors cut sportsbook use for prediction markets | www.casino.org | |
| Projected prediction market volume by 2035$10 trillion (analyst estimate cited by casino.org) | Regulation 35% of bettors cut sportsbook use for prediction markets | www.casino.org | |
| Kalshi sports betting shareup to 70% of an estimated $4bn revenue over 12 months to July (source close to Kalshi) | Markets Tribal casinos sue Kalshi after CEO Mansour’s talks implode | nypost.com | |
| Ninth Circuit rulingruled against Kalshi in a tribal lawsuit earlier this month (New York Post) | Markets Tribal casinos sue Kalshi after CEO Mansour’s talks implode | nypost.com | |
| Indian gaming revenue$46bn taken in last year, up 5.3% (Indian Gaming Commission) | Markets Tribal casinos sue Kalshi after CEO Mansour’s talks implode | nypost.com | |
| First Mansour-Rocha callMarch 2025 video call where Mansour asked Rocha to become an advisor | Markets Tribal casinos sue Kalshi after CEO Mansour’s talks implode | nypost.com | |
| One-day price moveYes down 15 points to 22% (Polymarket) | Markets Man City title odds fall 15 points to 22% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| 24-hour volume$473,000 traded (Polymarket) | Markets Man City title odds fall 15 points to 22% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Total volume since market opened$2.7m (Polymarket) | Markets Man City title odds fall 15 points to 22% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Current liquidity$346,000 (Polymarket) | Markets Man City title odds fall 15 points to 22% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| Market closes30 May 2027 (Polymarket) | Markets Man City title odds fall 15 points to 22% in a day | polymarket.com | |
| CaseFederación Mexicana de Fútbol Asociación, A.C. v. Kalshi Inc. | Sports Kalshi sued by Mexican football body in New York federal court | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Docket1:26-cv-08259 (CourtListener) | Sports Kalshi sued by Mexican football body in New York federal court | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Filing typeAO 120 Form Trademark, case opening, document #8 | Sports Kalshi sued by Mexican football body in New York federal court | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Filing date25 September 2026, letter to the Fourth Circuit (Kalshi counsel William Havemann) | Regulation Kalshi tells Fourth Circuit to wait on new CFTC rule | www.courtlistener.com | |
| CFTC timelineRevised rule 40.11 expected final within two months (CFTC filing, CFTC v. Johnson, 9th Cir.) | Regulation Kalshi tells Fourth Circuit to wait on new CFTC rule | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Federal Register entryPrediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations, 91 Fed. Reg. 35,806 (12 June 2026) | Regulation Kalshi tells Fourth Circuit to wait on new CFTC rule | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Case numberKalshiEX LLC v. John A. Martin, et al., No. 25-1892 (4th Cir.) | Regulation Kalshi tells Fourth Circuit to wait on new CFTC rule | www.courtlistener.com | |
| Current priceNo 91%, Yes 9% (PredictIt) | Markets PredictIt traders price daylight saving at 91% no | www.predictit.org | |
| Market closes31 December 2026 (PredictIt) | Markets PredictIt traders price daylight saving at 91% no | www.predictit.org | |
| VolumeNot published, per PredictIt's data policy | Markets PredictIt traders price daylight saving at 91% no | www.predictit.org |
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