Kalshi gives Democrats a slightly higher shot at the Senate than Polymarket.
The hit
Two weeks out from election day, traders on Polymarket & Kalshi both price Democrats at 90% to win control of the House. The split comes on the Senate: Polymarket has Democrats at 63%, Kalshi at 65%, according to the Detroit Free Press.
Why it matters
Traders show a two-point gap between platforms on the Senate, while the House price sits level on both. Michigan’s nationally watched Senate race has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed priced on both platforms.
The record
| House control | Democrats priced at 90% on both Polymarket & Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Senate control (Polymarket) | Democrats priced at 63% |
| Senate control (Kalshi) | Democrats priced at 65% |
| Michigan Senate race | Democrat Abdul El-Sayed priced at 68% on both platforms |
| Michigan governor race | Democrat Jocelyn Benson priced at 93% (Polymarket), 92.3% (Kalshi) |
What happens next
Michigan votes on 3 November, part of a midterm election that will decide all 435 House seats & 35 Senate seats nationwide. Absentee ballots are out now & early in-person voting is about to start.
Sources: Prediction markets favor Dems in midterms. What wagers show
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