Traders slash Fed hike odds from 35% to 16% in a day

Trading volume on the market has hit $5.8m since it launched, with $244k still sitting in liquidity.

The hit

Polymarket’s contract asking whether the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points after its October 2026 meeting fell 19 points in a day, from 35% to 16%, on $593k of trades, according to Polymarket data.

Why it matters

The swing shows traders rapidly repricing the chance of tighter policy, with ‘no hike’ now dominant at 84%. For anyone watching the Fed, a move this sharp in a single day signals a shift in what traders think the central bank will do, not a certainty either way.

The record

24-hour volume	$593k (Polymarket)
Yes price, 24 hours ago	35% (Polymarket)
Yes price, now	16% (Polymarket)

What happens next

The market resolves to the number of basis points the upper bound of the Fed’s target funds rate changes by versus its level before the October 2026 meeting, rounded up to the nearest 25 bps, per Polymarket’s rules. The market closes 29 October 2026.

Sources: Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

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