Politics
Andrews stuns South Carolina, blindsiding prediction markets
Democrat Annie Andrews beat Darline Graham in South Carolina, a result prediction markets had not favoured.
PollBet: What prediction markets are pricing
Politics.
Every Politics story the desk has published, newest first, each read in 60 seconds with its sources.
Showing 1–12 of 16 articles in Politics.
Politics
Traders price Democrats at 94% to take the House
Political trading volume has cooled sharply since the 2024 election, according to Bloomberg.
Politics
Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat
Prediction markets give Rep. James Talarico a 67.5% chance of beating Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Texas Senate seat.
Politics
Lula wins Brazil after Polymarket had him at 13.5%
Polymarket priced Lula as a heavy underdog before he won Brazil's presidential runoff.
Politics
Polls show deadlock, but Polymarket backs Eisenkot over Netanyahu
Prediction markets favour Gadi Eisenkot to become Israel's next prime minister, despite polls showing a deadlock with Netanyahu.
Politics
Midterm trading tops $1.4bn as Kalshi leads with $1.1bn
Prediction markets have traded more than $1.4bn tied to the 2026 US midterms, led by Kalshi.
Politics
Traders price Democrats at 90% to win House
Prediction markets Polymarket & Kalshi both price Democrats as strong favourites to win the House ahead of the 3 November midterms.
Politics
Kalshi gives Flanagan 86% despite dead-heat Minnesota polls
Traders price Democrat Peggy Flanagan well above her polling lead in Minnesota's Senate race.
Politics
Traders split 50-50 on Sánchez as next leader out
Traders pushed the odds of Sánchez being the next European leader out to 50%, up from 6% a day earlier.
Politics
Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day
Traders now price Flavio Bolsonaro at 90% to top Brazil's first-round vote, up from 29% a day earlier.
Politics
Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi
Nithya Raman has overtaken LA Mayor Karen Bass on Kalshi after a poll put her ahead by 11 points.
Politics
Kansas Democrat odds jump 21pts to 39% on PredictIt
Traders on PredictIt now price Kansas Democrats at 39% to win the 2026 governor's race, up from 18% a day earlier.