Traders price Talarico 67.5% to flip Texas Senate seat

Polls show a tight race, but market pricing tells a different story.

The hit

Traders give Rep. James Talarico a 67.5% chance of flipping the Texas Senate seat, with Attorney General Ken Paxton at roughly 32%, according to Prediction.com, which aggregates data from seven markets including Kalshi & Polymarket. Polls show only a slim Talarico lead.

Why it matters

The gap between polling & market pricing matters because, Prediction.com head of product AJ Francia says, real-time information moves prices faster than polls can react. He said a debate stumble can shift prices within seconds, while polls take days to catch up.

The record

Talarico implied win probability	67.5%
Paxton implied win probability	about 32%
Money staked on the Senate race	$51.6m across Kalshi & Polymarket; total is higher since other markets aren’t counted (Prediction.com)
Money staked on the governor’s race	$7.9m
Underdog outperformance in 2026 primaries	30% more wins than Kalshi odds implied (Campaign for Accountability, 29 Oct)

What happens next

Election Day is less than a week away, with early voting nearly complete & record turnout reported in some Texas counties. Watch whether market pricing converges with or diverges from polling as results come in.

Sources: Online prediction markets overwhelmingly bet on Talarico in race against Paxton for Senate

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.