A separate Polymarket contract prices Anthropic at 27.1% to close its first trading day above $2tn.
The hit
Polymarket traders are pricing a chance that Anthropic announces bankruptcy by 31 December 2029, according to Cryptonews. A separate contract on the same platform gives the AI firm a shot at closing its first trading day worth $2tn-$2.25tn. The two markets are unrelated contracts, not a single combined forecast.
Why it matters
The split shows traders backing explosive AI growth while hedging against the cash burn needed to fund it. A CNBC report on 7 October valued Anthropic at about $150bn, based on a model-based assessment, citing a leaked prospectus projecting 2025 revenue of $4.6bn against a $42bn net loss. The bankruptcy contracts resolve at their own separate deadlines.
The record
| $2.0tn-$2.25tn first-day market cap | 27.1% Yes, $305,987 volume (Polymarket) |
|---|---|
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 2029 | 21.5% Yes, $83,962 volume (Polymarket) |
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 2028 | 18.5% Yes (Polymarket) |
| Bankruptcy announcement by 31 Dec 2027 | 9.5% Yes (Polymarket) |
| No IPO by 31 Dec 2027 | 2.6% Yes, $84,754 volume (Polymarket) |
| CNBC valuation of Anthropic | $150bn vs $2tn target sought, cited by CNBC (7 October) |
What happens next
Watch whether an IPO occurs & what a public prospectus discloses about Anthropic’s finances.
Sources: Anthropic IPO Polymarket Odds: Valuation Bet Faces a 21.5% Bankruptcy Scenario
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