Kalshi gives Flanagan 86% despite dead-heat Minnesota polls

Polymarket prices Flanagan even higher, according to DeFi Rate.

The hit

Prediction markets don’t buy Minnesota’s tight Senate polls. Kalshi prices Democrat Peggy Flanagan at 86% to beat Republican Michele Tafoya on $1.6m traded, despite an InsiderAdvantage poll putting her ahead by just one point, 46% to 45%, & a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll showing the race tied at 42%. Polymarket has her even higher, at 89%, on $199,150 traded, according to DeFi Rate.

Why it matters

The gap matters because the seat belongs to retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, & a Republican pickup would force Democrats to find five flipped seats instead of four to retake the Senate, assuming they lose no other seats. Cook Political Report still rates the state likely Democratic, pointing to Flanagan’s late campaign spending. According to DeFi Rate, the markets suggest traders expect Minnesota’s Democratic advantages to hold.

The record

InsiderAdvantage poll	Flanagan 46%, Tafoya 45%, surveyed Sept 28-29 (DeFi Rate)
KSTP/SurveyUSA poll	Flanagan & Tafoya tied at 42%, 12% undecided (DeFi Rate)
Flanagan’s primary win	Beat Rep. Angie Craig 59% to 39% in August primary (DeFi Rate)

What happens next

Watch the Oct 16 MPR debate between Flanagan & Tafoya, & whether any further polling narrows or confirms the gap before the Nov 3 election.

Sources: Minnesota Senate Polls vs. Prediction Markets

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