The same anonymous account also made over $180,000 betting on Michigan’s Senate race before a poll broke.
The hit
Polymarket has opened an investigation after Vanderbilt University researchers flagged a trader who made over $257,000 on Senate race bets placed shortly before two New York Times/Siena College polls went public. One bet, $191,277 on Nebraska senator Pete Ricketts, turned a profit of more than $77,000 after a poll showed him six points ahead.
Why it matters
If someone can see poll results before publication, Polymarket’s prices stop reflecting public information & start reflecting an edge only a few insiders hold. That undermines the pitch that prediction markets are a clean, tradeable signal of what will actually happen, not just a vehicle for those with early access to data.
The record
| Deposit into anonymous wallet | $2m, around 5:30pm ET, 30 October 2026 (Vanderbilt research) |
|---|---|
| Ricketts odds shift | Approximately 67% before poll, about 79% after poll (Polymarket) |
| Michigan Senate bet & profit | $622,000+ wagered on Democratic nominee, $180,000+ profit |
What happens next
Polymarket has not announced findings or penalties. Kalshi, also named in the research, declined to comment. Vanderbilt researcher Brett Goldstein stopped short of accusing anyone, saying the activity ‘requires further investigation.’ Watch for whether either platform identifies the wallet’s controller or changes how it handles bets timed around scheduled poll releases.
Sources: Polymarket investigates suspicious bets placed hours before NYT/Siena polls
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