Anthropic files for Nasdaq debut, traders eye $2tn first day
Polymarket traders price just 4% odds on Anthropic missing the market’s Dec 2027 resolution deadline.
The hit
Anthropic filed a Form S-1 with the SEC on Monday, formally kicking off its bid to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Crypto exchanges including Binance & Bitget are already pricing the AI firm near a $1.87 trillion valuation, according to news.bitcoin.com. Polymarket traders go further, favouring a $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion first-day market cap.
Why it matters
None of the numbers are official. Anthropic hasn’t set a share count, offering price or valuation, yet derivatives & prediction markets are already pricing outcomes the company itself hasn’t disclosed. Polymarket’s contracts settle later, against Anthropic’s actual first-day closing market cap. For traders, the gap between Defillama’s $1.61 trillion pre-IPO estimate & the derivatives price shows how much of this is speculation rather than fundamentals.
The record
| S-1 filed | Oct 26, targeting Nasdaq listing under ticker ANT |
|---|---|
| Crypto derivatives valuation | $1.86tn-$1.88tn implied on Binance & Bitget, Oct 25-26 |
| Polymarket favoured bracket | $1.75tn-$2tn, 26% probability |
| Odds against IPO completing | just 4% by the market’s Dec 31, 2027 resolution deadline |
| Prior private valuation | $965bn at May 28 financing round (Defillama) |
What happens next
Watch for Anthropic to disclose its share count & offering price, which will set the official valuation Polymarket’s contracts settle against.
Sources: Anthropic Files for IPO as Crypto Traders Price It Near $1.9T
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