Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race

Cooper also leads on Polymarket, though volume there is a fraction of Kalshi’s.

The hit

Roy Cooper is trading at 94.5% on Kalshi to win North Carolina’s open Senate seat, according to DeFi Rate, with $2.3m changing hands. A new AARP poll puts Cooper ahead of Republican Michael Whatley by 11 points among likely voters, a margin that tracks the market price.

Why it matters

North Carolina is a Republican-held open seat after Sen. Thom Tillis’s retirement, making a Cooper win a Democratic gain rather than a defensive hold. Democrats need to flip four Republican seats to take Senate control, & on current prices, DeFi Rate calls this the most straightforward of those four.

The record

Kalshi price	Cooper 94.5%, $2.3m traded (Kalshi)
Polymarket price	Cooper 96%, just over $200,000 traded (Polymarket)
AARP poll	Cooper 53%, Whatley 42%, 1,115 likely voters, Sept 17-20, margin of error 2.9 points
Elon University poll	Cooper 49%, Whatley 38% (earlier this month)
Republican super PAC spend	Senate Leadership Fund pledged $71m in North Carolina through Election Day; Trump-aligned PAC added roughly $5m

What happens next

Watch whether the National Republican Senatorial Committee commits fresh money to North Carolina after Politico reported Chair Tim Scott left the state off his spending priorities list, a claim the NRSC disputes. The Senate Leadership Fund’s $71m pledge & the Trump-aligned PAC’s $5m mean other Republican money can still move in.

Sources: Cooper Hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate Race

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