CME tried CPI futures & dropped them, while Wall Street’s swaps desks still dominate.
The hit
Kalshi is developing a futures market tied to US inflation, aiming to break into territory long held by Wall Street’s bilateral swaps desks, according to Bloomberg. The exchange confirmed the product is in the works but gave no launch date. Unlike its existing CPI event contracts, which pay out on a threshold, the futures would track the inflation measure across a chosen maturity.
Why it matters
Exchange-traded inflation futures have flopped for four decades. CME launched a CPI contract in 2004 but no longer offers it. Kalshi’s distribution network: Talos integration, Cantor Fitzgerald block-trade infrastructure & Kalshi Pro, could bring the new contracts to traders & market makers already using professional tools, according to Finance Magnates. Whether that liquidity materialises only shows up after launch.
The record
| Inflation-swap market size | $5.4tn (Bloomberg) |
|---|---|
| TIPS market size | $2.2tn (Bloomberg) |
| Planned contract structure | next 12 monthly CPI periods, then May & November for four years |
| CPI product advisor | Michael Ashton, working with Kalshi since August |
What happens next
Watch for Kalshi to confirm a rollout timeline & for early trading volumes to reveal whether institutional desks actually turn up.
Sources: Kalshi pitches a futures market tied to inflation – report
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