The market has traded $6.6m since opening, with $644k in liquidity behind the current price.
The hit
Traders priced an 84% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady after its October 2026 meeting, according to Polymarket, up 18-20 points in a day. The move came on $1.1m of trades in 24 hours. The “no change” contract now trades at 84% yes, 16% no.
Why it matters
Polymarket’s own signal shows a 20-point jump, from 64% to 84%, though the platform’s price history shows 66% a day earlier, up 18 points. The source gives no reason for the move. The 16% “no” price covers any change to rates, not just a cut.
The record
| Current price | 84% yes, 16% no (Polymarket) |
|---|---|
| One-day change | Up 18-20 points (Polymarket) |
| 24-hour volume | $1.1m in trades (Polymarket) |
| Total volume since opening | $6.6m (Polymarket) |
| Liquidity | $644k (Polymarket) |
| Market closes | 29 October 2026 (Polymarket) |
What happens next
The market closes on 29 October 2026, about four weeks away, resolving on the basis-point change to the Fed’s upper target rate set at that month’s FOMC meeting.
Sources: Polymarket: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
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