Midterm trading tops $1.4bn as Kalshi leads with $1.1bn
Polymarket has logged over $340m, far behind rival Kalshi, as regulators warn on insider trading risks.
The hit
Trading tied to the 2026 US midterms has topped $1.4bn, according to FLASH AI. Kalshi has recorded nearly $1.1bn in midterm-related volume, a company spokesperson said, while rival Polymarket has logged more than $340m across its US-facing & offshore platforms.
Why it matters
The figures track total money changing hands before markets close, not stakes on a single outcome, so they measure activity, not conviction. Industry newsletter publisher Dustin Gouker says election trading remains smaller than sports & crypto betting but offers a useful signal blending polling with sentiment.
The record
| ForecastEx midterm volume | $6.4m+ (Interactive Brokers-owned platform) |
|---|---|
| Smarkets midterm volume | ~$200,000 among UK customers |
| Candidates suspended by Kalshi | 6, for betting on their own races |
What happens next
Federal regulators have promised action against insider trading tied to the midterms, while Smarkets seeks the Trump administration’s approval to operate in the US.
Sources: Prediction Markets for 2026 Midterms Exceed $1.4 Billion in Trading Volume
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