Regulation
Google blocks prediction-market ads in five US states
Google has barred prediction-market operators from advertising in five US states where legal challenges to the industry are under way.
Reporting
Markets
Tesla-SpaceX merger odds pass 50% for early 2027
Prediction market traders now price a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement above even odds for early 2027.
Scandal
$2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn
CFTC staff were reportedly told to withdraw a suspicious-trading report tied to Iran war bets.
Regulation
Oklahoma tribe denies Kalshi partnership claim
An Oklahoma tribe denies Kalshi's claim of a partnership, according to SBC Americas.
Scandal
Kalshi to probe trades on Trump’s press secretary pick
Kalshi is set to probe well-timed trades on Katie Zacharia's surprise press secretary appointment.
Markets
Anthropic faces $2tn IPO bet & a bankruptcy hedge
Polymarket traders are pricing both a $2tn Anthropic IPO & a 21.5% chance of bankruptcy by 2029.
Markets
Kalshi probes bets on $0.01 outsider Zacharia
Kalshi is reportedly investigating unusual trades that correctly picked Katie Zacharia as Trump's next press secretary.
Regulation
Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear
Prediction markets have traded $409.7bn in 2026 while appeals courts disagree on whether sports contracts are derivatives or bets.
Markets
Prediction markets could cost gaming up to $39.4bn a year
A new report warns prediction markets could drain up to $39.4bn a year from tribal & commercial gaming.
Learn
Are prediction markets legal in the US? How the state fight stands
Whether a US prediction market is legal depends on your state & the type of contract. This guide sets out the federal case, the states' case, the court…