Regulation
White House vets CFTC bid to redefine event contracts as swaps
The White House is reviewing CFTC proposals that would redefine event contracts as swaps & exclude casino-style gambling products.
Reporting
Politics
Maine House race: Republican odds leap 23pts to 57%
Traders on PredictIt now price Republicans at 57% to win Maine's 2nd District House seat after a 23-point jump in a day.
Markets
Fed October hold odds double to 50% in a single day
Polymarket traders now see a 50-50 chance the Fed holds rates in October, up from 30% a day earlier.
Markets
Weekly prediction-market volume tops $20bn for first time ever
Prediction markets logged a record $20.4bn weekly volume, with Kalshi taking 77% of the total.
Markets
Trump’s 38.8-39.0% approval contract jumps 25 points to 60%
PredictIt traders repriced the odds of Trump's RCP approval landing at 38.8-39.0% sharply higher in a day.
Sports
Medvedev’s ATP Hangzhou odds jump 19pts to 60%
Traders price Daniil Medvedev at 60% to win ATP Hangzhou after a one-day jump.
Politics
Philippe’s French president odds crash 28pts to 20%
Traders on PredictIt slashed Philippe's chances of becoming the next French president by 28 points in a day.
Markets
Kalshi holds $9.6bn of $10bn weekly non-sports volume
Public now lets AI agents trade Kalshi event contracts & use the odds to trigger stock & options trades elsewhere in a portfolio.
Politics
Cooper hits 94.5% on Kalshi in North Carolina Senate race
Traders price Roy Cooper at 94.5% to win North Carolina's open Senate seat on Kalshi.
Play money
Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50%
A Manifold play-money market on whether P vs NP will be resolved by 2043 fell 20 points in a day.