Hegseth faces Senate hurdle even if House impeaches him

Kalshi prices impeachment at 80%, Polymarket’s departure contract at 46%, after Rep. Thomas Massie forced a House vote.

The hit

Traders are far more confident Pete Hegseth gets impeached than that he loses his job. Kalshi’s contract on impeachment before 1 January sits at 80%, after Rep. Thomas Massie moved Monday to force a House vote, according to DeFi Rate. Polymarket’s separate contract on Hegseth being out as defence secretary by 31 December is at 46%, with roughly $2.18m traded.

Why it matters

The gap reflects a real procedural split. Impeachment needs only a simple House majority, & ABC News reports three Republican votes would be enough to pass it if all Democrats support the resolution. Conviction needs a two-thirds Senate vote, a far higher bar. A trader can price impeachment high while still expecting Hegseth to keep his job.

The record

Kalshi impeachment contract (before 1 Jan)	80%, down from 86% cited in Kalshi’s Tuesday release
Polymarket departure contract (by 31 Dec)	46%
Senate seats held by Republicans	53; Reuters says conviction looks unlikely under that composition
Resolution’s articles	8, including 3 alleging unauthorised hostilities in Iran, continuing them after Congress directed withdrawal & disregarding War Powers deadlines
Massie’s prior attempt	September, delayed when Speaker Mike Johnson sent lawmakers home; Johnson denied the recess was related to Massie’s measure

What happens next

Watch whether any Republicans join Democrats & whether the House votes this week.

Sources: Kalshi Prices Hegseth Impeachment at 80%, Departure Less Sure

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