Polls show deadlock, but Polymarket backs Eisenkot over Netanyahu

A study of 1.2m transactions found seven accounts held 29% of money bet against Netanyahu.

The hit

Polymarket traders price Gadi Eisenkot’s odds of becoming Israel’s next prime minister at 58%, against 27% for Benjamin Netanyahu, according to the Jewish Telegraphic Agency. Kalshi traders give Eisenkot 52% & Netanyahu 28%. Polls released last week show no clear 61-seat majority for either bloc.

Why it matters

Moran Ofir, a University of Haifa professor who studies prediction markets, said Polymarket prices reflect money staked by self-selected traders, not a representative electorate. Her study with Columbia Law School’s Joshua Mitts & Betting Intelligence’s Dan Zimmermann found 1 account held 18% of the money backing Netanyahu. Ofir says the market is dominated by a very small number of large players, raising questions over whether prices reflect genuine belief or attempts to shape public opinion.

The record

Concentration in Netanyahu backing	18% of money held by a single account (Ofir, Mitts & Zimmermann study of 1.2m transactions)
Ofer Winter bets (suspected manipulation, per Ofir)	$3,200 wagered by two new accounts briefly pushed Winter above Avigdor Lieberman in the market’s candidate rankings

What happens next

Israelis vote on Tuesday. Watch coalition talks after the vote.

Sources: Polls show a deadlock, but betting markets strongly favor Eisenkot to replace Netanyahu

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.