Another trader lost around $27,100 betting against Lula on the same market.
The hit
Brazil’s Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff after Polymarket had priced his odds at just 13.5% following Bolsonaro’s first-round lead, according to iGaming Business. Lula became the first candidate since 1989 to win after finishing second in round one. One Polymarket trader profited $47,595 from the mispricing; another trader lost about $27,100.
Why it matters
The miss lands less than two weeks before the US midterms, which Kalshi’s Tarek Mansour calls “truly the first prediction market election”. Researcher David Lawant of Anchorage Digital says markets “repriced to the new reality before the expert consensus”. Smarkets CEO Jason Trost says a price is a “real-time price gauge”, not a determination of whether an outcome is “right”.
The record
| First-round result | Bolsonaro won ~47% of the vote on 4 October (iGaming Business) |
|---|---|
| Lula’s odds after round one | Fell to 13.5% on Polymarket (iGaming Business) |
| Odds when polls closed | ~20% chance for Lula, against a 51%-49% poll lead for Bolsonaro (Smarkets CEO Jason Trost) |
Sources: igamingbusiness.com
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