Polymarket US’s election volume jumped 203% against Kalshi’s 142% rise over the same 20-day stretch, according to DeFi Rate.
The hit
Election trading across Kalshi, Polymarket US, ForecastEx & Gemini hit $103.87m in the first 20 days of October, according to DeFi Rate. That’s up from roughly $41m over the same stretch in September. The Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton & Democrat James Talarico, plus the national House-control market, drove nearly $49m of it.
Why it matters
Traders are concentrating money on a handful of marquee contests rather than spreading it across the ballot. On Kalshi’s continuously observed contracts, Texas Senate alone pulled in more new volume than Michigan, Ohio, Iowa & South Carolina combined, according to DeFi Rate. Smaller markets like Ohio Senate & California’s governor’s race are growing slower or shrinking, a reminder that headline industry growth hides uneven demand underneath.
The record
| Texas Senate volume (Kalshi) | $17.94m in October vs $5.96m for all September |
|---|---|
| Texas Senate volume (four operators) | approximately $21.7m in October 1-20 |
| House-control volume (Kalshi) | $22.33m in October, up from $7.28m in September 1-20 |
| Kalshi election volume growth | up 142% vs September 1-20, $79m total (76% of four-operator volume) |
| Iowa governor’s race (Polymarket US) | $1.44m in October vs $296,475 in all September |
What happens next
Watch whether Texas Senate & House-control volume keeps concentrating trading as November 3 approaches, or whether other competitive races start catching up, per DeFi Rate’s next reporting period.
Sources: Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Jumps to $104M Ahead of Midterms
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