Kalshi’s chart never showed 87%, though trades briefly hit 88 cents, according to PunchUp.
The hit
Kalshi deleted a tweet claiming an 87% chance Tucker Carlson would be charged with a federal crime this year, according to PunchUp. Kalshi’s own historical chart never showed the figure reaching 87%, though the underlying trade data confirms contracts traded as high as 88 cents, & TickerTracker also captured the spike to 87%.
Why it matters
PunchUp says there is little reason to believe 87% reflected a meaningful market consensus on Carlson’s chances of being charged. For traders, it is a reminder that headline odds can come from a brief price spike on thin volume rather than real consensus.
The record
| Kalshi tweet claim | 87% chance Tucker Carlson charged with a federal crime this year |
|---|---|
| Kalshi trade data | Contracts traded as high as 88 cents (PunchUp) |
| Carlson market now | 7% charge chance on under $13,000 traded (PunchUp) |
| Spike trigger | Appears to have come from a burst of trading on an illiquid market on 16 October |
What happens next
Watch whether Kalshi comments on its social media practices for thin-volume markets.
Sources: Polymarket Removes Cornell 7 Market; Kalshi Deletes Tucker Carlson Crime Odds Tweet
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