Traders bet Trump’s RCP rating lands at 38.1% or below
A PredictIt contract tracks whether Trump’s RCP approval reading lands at 38.1% or lower when the market closes.
The hit
A PredictIt contract on Trump’s approval rating just swung 60 points in a single day. Traders now price a 75% chance his RealClearPolitics approval reading comes in at 38.1% or lower on 7 October, up from 15% the day before, according to PredictIt’s market data.
Why it matters
PredictIt publishes no volume figures, so the scale of money behind the move is not disclosed. The platform also caps how much any single trader can hold in a contract. That leaves the price swing as the only documented fact: PredictIt does not say why traders shifted, only that they did. The contract resolves on a single reading of Trump’s RCP job approval rating on 7 October, taken from the market’s own resolution rules.
The record
| Yes price now | 75% (PredictIt) |
|---|---|
| Yes price a day earlier | 15% (PredictIt) |
| One-day move | +60 points on ‘Yes’ (PredictIt) |
| Market closes | 7 October 2026 (PredictIt) |
What happens next
Trump’s RCP job approval rating is set & the contract settles on PredictIt.
Sources: PredictIt: What will President Trump’s RCP job approval rating be on Oct. 7?
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