Markets
Kalshi traders price 2027 US recession at record-low 20%
Kalshi traders now price a 2027 US recession at a record-low 20%, down from highs of more than 30% to 50% earlier in 2026.
Reporting
Regulation
Polymarket fights Dutch €420,000-a-week fine in court
Polymarket is challenging the Dutch gambling regulator in court over a €420,000-a-week fine for unlicensed activity.
Politics
Traders split 50-50 on Sánchez as next leader out
Traders pushed the odds of Sánchez being the next European leader out to 50%, up from 6% a day earlier.
Regulation
Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96%
California governor nominee Xavier Becerra has returned $89,200 in donations from Kalshi & Underdog Sports Holdings amid conflict-of-interest scrutiny.
Politics
Flavio Bolsonaro jumps from 29% to 90% in a day
Traders now price Flavio Bolsonaro at 90% to top Brazil's first-round vote, up from 29% a day earlier.
Sports
UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56%
Kalshi traders price a 56% chance Bill Belichick is out at North Carolina by February.
Markets
ARK’s Wood bets on Kalshi, eyes $5tn market
Cathie Wood has added Kalshi to her ETF strategies, praising its management as prediction markets gain investor attention.
Markets
Raven’s prediction-market valuation more than triples to $90m
Prediction-market liquidity provider Raven has more than tripled its valuation to $90 million in a round led by Coinbase Ventures & CMCC Global.
Regulation
Judge partly backs Coinbase & Kalshi in Illinois fight
Coinbase, the CFTC & Kalshi are fighting Illinois in federal court after a cease-&-desist letter & new prediction-market trading fees.
Regulation
44 state AGs vs Kalshi’s lobbying millions
Kalshi is funding the political groups that back the state attorneys general trying to regulate it as gambling.