Polymarket & Kalshi both make Democrats strong favourites to take the House & Senate, according to The Block.
The hit
Polymarket traders price Democrats at 94% to take the House & 76% for the Senate, as of early Tuesday afternoon, according to The Block. Kalshi shows a near-identical split: 94% House, 75% Senate. All 435 House seats & 35 of 100 Senate seats are up for election. Political trading has cooled since 2024: politics made up just 1% of October volume on both platforms, down from over 60% during the 2024 election, Bloomberg reported.
Why it matters
A shift in party control matters because Democrats are likely to lead key committees, according to The Block, including panels overseeing crypto where Elizabeth Warren & Sherrod Brown could lead the agenda. Experts who spoke to The Block said that would mean more oversight of the industry, including scrutiny of Donald Trump’s crypto wealth through his family’s World Liberty Financial, & less focus on crypto legislation. Brown, a former senator described by The Block as a crypto critic, must first beat incumbent Jon Husted in Ohio.
The record
| Ohio Senate race (Kalshi) | 71% chance Sherrod Brown beats Jon Husted |
|---|---|
| New Jersey Senate race (Kalshi) | 98% chance Cory Booker wins |
What happens next
Polls close Tuesday; watch the House & Senate calls.
Sources: Prediction markets bet on Democratic sweep of House, Senate in midterm elections
18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.
Work with BH Group. Paid ads that get iGaming & crypto brands players & users, in the GEOs you choose. Get a plan
Discussion
Ask a question, add useful context or share a source. Keep it relevant & respectful.
Add a comment