Traders price Anthropic topping Bitcoin’s value at up to 79%
Anthropic’s last private valuation sat well below the range traders expect at IPO.
The hit
Polymarket traders have priced Anthropic’s valuation overtaking Bitcoin’s market cap at up to 79%, despite the AI firm never having traded publicly. The contract, which has drawn around $209,000 in volume, needs Anthropic to beat Bitcoin’s market cap just once before the contract’s deadline.
Why it matters
The bet hinges on where Anthropic’s Nasdaq debut gets priced against Bitcoin’s current band. A listing near the top of expectations clears Bitcoin easily; a conservative pricing leaves Anthropic brushing up against Bitcoin rather than leaping past it. Traders are watching where Bitcoin’s price sits too.
The record
| Anthropic S-1 filed | 26 October 2026, Nasdaq ticker ANT |
|---|---|
| Expected IPO valuation | $1.5tn-$2tn (market expectations) |
| Last private valuation | $965bn, after $65bn Series H in May 2026 |
| Bitcoin market cap | $1.55tn-$1.61tn, BTC near $77,000-$80,000 |
| H1 2026 revenue | $16.3bn, up over 1300% year-on-year |
| Alternative valuation estimate | $1.475tn (NYU professor Aswath Damodaran) |
What happens next
Watch Anthropic’s first days of trading against Bitcoin’s market cap. The Polymarket contract resolves by 31 December 2026, so any listing delay shrinks the window.
Sources: Polymarket traders bet Anthropic will outgrow Bitcoin by year-end
18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.
Work with BH Group. Paid ads that get iGaming & crypto brands players & users, in the GEOs you choose. Get a plan
Discussion
Ask a question, add useful context or share a source. Keep it relevant & respectful.
Add a comment