$2bn in S&P 500 futures traded before Trump’s Iran U-turn

The Justice Department has reportedly opened a parallel probe into the same trades.

The hit

CFTC staff were reportedly ordered to withdraw a report flagging suspicious trades made just before President Trump reversed his threat to strike Iran, according to KuCoin News. Senior adviser Mel Gunewardena, who works for CFTC chair Michael Selig, allegedly asked the market oversight team to withdraw the report after analysts had already referred the leads to the Division of Enforcement. The CFTC declined to comment on the matter, & Gunewardena did not respond to a request for comment.

Why it matters

If an adviser to a political appointee can ask staff to withdraw a referral already sent to enforcement, it changes who actually polices insider trading at the CFTC. Former enforcement director Aitan Goelman said staff who fear their work can be stopped at any time will find it harder to do their jobs. That chilling effect matters for every market the CFTC oversees, including prediction markets betting on geopolitical events.

The record

Crude oil sold before announcement	at least 6m barrels of Brent & WTI in two minutes, over 8.5x the same window a week earlier
S&P 500 futures traded	over $2bn notional value in a short pre-market window
Price moves after Trump’s Truth Social post	Brent fell as much as 14%; US & European stocks rose about 4%
Congressional demand	Senator Elizabeth Warren says Selig & Gunewardena should brief Congress on the probe’s progress & any enforcement action (statement, Tuesday)

What happens next

The CFTC says it is expanding its review to international futures, swaps, options & ETFs, with enforcement still focused on March & April trades, especially 23 March.

Sources: CFTC Staff Ordered to Withdraw Suspicious Trade Report Amid Market Movements Related to Iran War

Named in this story? Reply to newsdesk@pollbet.com & we publish it.

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.