DraftKings bets $700m on prediction markets to drive 2027 growth

DraftKings now expects $175m-$275m in 2026 adjusted EBITDA, down from a prior $700m-$900m forecast.

The hit

DraftKings shares fell as much as 27% on Friday, closing down 21%, after the company more than doubled its planned 2026 prediction-markets spending & guided 2027 profit below Wall Street estimates, according to TIKR. CEO Jason Robins told the third-quarter call the company is in a “win-win position no matter how any future court ruling plays out.”

Why it matters

TIKR says the sell-off shows traders doubting whether DraftKings’ prediction-markets bet pays back fast enough to justify the squeeze on near-term profit. Robins is betting predictions revenue can offset the cost before an adverse Supreme Court ruling on sports contracts could hit. At 17 times forward earnings, near the bottom of its recent range, the stock already prices in plenty of doubt about that bet.

The record

2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance cut	$175m-$275m, down from $700m-$900m (DraftKings)
2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance	$800m-$1bn, below $1.12bn analyst consensus
2027 predictions revenue forecast	~$700m, about two-thirds of guided growth (Jason Robins)
Predictions customers to date	more than 1.6 million users (Jason Robins)
Q3 sportsbook net revenue growth	36%, with “no discernible impact” from predictions (Jason Robins)

What happens next

DraftKings’ fourth-quarter report in February will show whether those predictions customers are converting into gross profit. The Supreme Court ruling on sports contracts remains the key risk to the payback timeline.

Sources: DraftKings CEO Says It’s in “a Win-Win Position” on Prediction Markets After a 27% Crash

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.