Markets vs polls: Kalshi, Polymarket post near-perfect winner record

Kalshi gave Texas Democrat Gina Hinojosa a 62% chance against Greg Abbott. She won & Abbott conceded, according to Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth.

The hit

Prediction markets reportedly out-called pollsters in the 2026 midterms, according to Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth. Kalshi & Polymarket correctly favoured the eventual winner in nearly every major race they priced. Polls were directionally right in most contests but badly underestimated the size of several Democratic wins, most notably in Georgia.

Why it matters

For traders, the midterms are a live accuracy test against the polling industry. Neither method was perfect, according to Fox 4 Dallas-Fort Worth, but markets were more consistent at identifying eventual winners, while polls were more useful for gauging how competitive a race looked beforehand.

The record

Georgia governor	Keisha Lance Bottoms won by roughly 8 points; polls had Rick Jackson ahead by 1-3 points or tied (The New York Times polling database)
Texas governor	Kalshi gave Hinojosa a 62% chance; she beat Abbott, who conceded
Ohio governor	Kalshi gave Acton an 82% chance, Polymarket 83%; Acton beat Ramaswamy
Senate sweep	Kalshi & Polymarket favoured James Talarico (TX), Troy Jackson (ME), Abdul El-Sayed (MI) & Sherrod Brown (OH); all four won
Alaska Senate	Markets & polls favoured Peltola over Sullivan; result unresolved pending ranked-choice count

What happens next

Alaska’s ranked-choice count was expected to take several days, the next test of whether the markets’ favourite, Peltola, holds.

Sources: Prediction markets vs. polls: Who got the election right? | FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth

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