Traders slash ‘P vs NP resolved by 2043’ odds from 70% to 50%

The play-money market has traded M24,429 since it opened.

The hit

A Manifold market asking whether the P vs NP problem will be resolved by 2043 crashed 20 points in a day, according to Manifold data. Yes odds fell from 70% to 50%, on M11,637 in play-money trades over 24 hours. Manifold uses mana, a play currency with no cash value.

Why it matters

The swing shows traders pricing in fresh doubt on the P vs NP problem, though nothing in the source explains what triggered the reassessment. With no cash on the line, the move reflects attention & conviction among Manifold’s community rather than money at risk. Still, a 20-point shift on modest volume shows how fast sentiment can turn on a niche forecasting market.

The record

Yes odds now	50% (Manifold)
One-day change	Down 20 points, from 70% to 50% (Manifold)
24-hour volume	M11,637 in play money (Manifold)
Volume since launch	M24,429 in play money (Manifold)
Liquidity	M1,000 in play money (Manifold)
Market closes	31 December 2043 (Manifold)

What happens next

Watch Manifold for whether the level holds or the odds keep sliding as traders reassess P vs NP before the market closes.

Sources: Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?

18+. Betting involves risk. If gambling is a problem for you or someone close to you, help is available.