The market closes 2026-10-05, the day after Brazil’s scheduled first-round vote.
The hit
Traders have pushed Flavio Bolsonaro’s odds of topping Brazil’s 2026 first-round vote to 90%, up 61 points in a single day, according to Polymarket. The contract sat at 29% yesterday. The move came on $645k of trades in 24 hours, landing on Brazil’s scheduled polling day, October 4, 2026.
Why it matters
The “No” side now holds just 10%. The contract has traded $1.1m since it opened, with $176k in liquidity behind current prices.
The record
| Yes price now | 90% (Polymarket) |
|---|---|
| Yes price 24 hours ago | 29% (Polymarket) |
| Volume since market opened | $1.1m (Polymarket) |
| Market liquidity | $176k (Polymarket) |
| Market closes | 2026-10-05 (Polymarket) |
What happens next
Resolution hinges on the candidate with the most valid first-round votes, per Polymarket’s rules. If the result isn’t known by 30 June 2027, the market resolves to “Other”.
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