2026 midterm election markets: how to read the odds

By Barry Healy EditorPublished: 10 October 2026, 03:48 EDT6 min read

Last reviewed 10 Oct 2026 · Editorial policy

A quiet polling-station-free town square at dusk, a tall empty flagpole-less stone civic hall with lit windows, wet cobblestones reflecting soft amber light, no people present.

What is on the ballot on 3 November 2026, what election contracts cover, the federal legal fight over them, where they are blocked & what the research says about their accuracy.

What’s on the ballot

The US midterm general elections take place on Tuesday 3 November 2026. According to Ballotpedia, 33 of the 100 Senate seats are up for regular election, with two more up for special election, making 35 in all.

The two special elections fill the last two years of the six-year terms that Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) & J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) won in 2022. Ballotpedia says Democrats hold 13 of the 33 regular seats & Republicans hold 20. Both special-election seats are Republican-held.

The Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats & two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Ballotpedia says Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority, while Republicans can lose only two & keep control.

Kalshi’s midterms overview describes this as an effective 53-47 Republican advantage. It notes that Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie. It adds that all 435 House seats are on the ballot, because House members serve two-year terms.

Kalshi also says 36 states will elect governors, & that those 36 offices are currently split 18 Democratic & 18 Republican.

What you can trade

A prediction market is a market built to forecast events such as elections. Traders buy & sell contracts tied to an outcome, & the price is read as the market’s estimate of how likely that outcome is.

Kalshi’s overview describes markets on which party will control the House & the Senate. It also covers individual Senate races, such as Texas, Maine & Ohio, & governors’ races, including Ohio, Georgia & Nevada.

Kalshi also publishes the American Power Index, known as KPOW. Kalshi says KPOW combines market expectations with current data to produce a single measure of the balance of political power in the United States.

Finance Magnates reported that Kalshi offered contracts on political outcomes including potential 2028 presidential nominees & specific Senate races.

Reading the odds

The prices below come from Kalshi’s own article, written about two months before the election. They are a snapshot from that point, not live figures. Kalshi labels the piece “for informational purposes only” & “not trading advice”.

At that point, Kalshi traders priced Democrats as heavy favourites to win the House. Kalshi says traders also favoured Democrats to flip the Senate, a reversal from earlier in 2026 when Republicans were favoured to hold it.

In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico. Kalshi says traders first priced the race near 50-50, matching the Cook Political Report’s toss-up rating. An update to the article says Paxton was trailing, with his chances priced at 40%.

In Maine, Kalshi says Democrat Troy Jackson was the favourite against incumbent Republican Susan Collins in early September. In the Ohio special election, former Senator Sherrod Brown was the favourite at 53%.

For governor, Kalshi traders gave Democrat Amy Acton a slight edge over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in Ohio. They favoured Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms over Republican Rick Jackson in Georgia, & Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo over Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada.

Kalshi says prices change immediately as new information arrives. It lists national polling, debates, scandals, candidate news & national events as forces that can move them, & warns that pricing can change substantially before election day.

How election contracts settle

The sources for this guide do not say which result source, certification standard or recount rule any individual midterm contract uses to settle. Those details sit in each market’s own rules.

On timing, Kalshi says the new Congress begins on 3 January 2027. That follows a post-election period in which results are officially certified & any unresolved contests are settled. Ballotpedia likewise says senators elected in the regularly scheduled elections on 3 November 2026 begin their six-year terms on 3 January 2027.

The federal legal fight over election contracts

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is the federal regulator of futures & derivatives markets. Finance Magnates reports that the dispute began in June 2023, when Kalshi asked the CFTC for permission to list contracts on which party would control the House & Senate. The CFTC refused, citing concerns about unlawful gaming & the public interest.

Kalshi sued. On 6 September 2024, Judge Jia M. Cobb of the US District Court for the District of Columbia granted Kalshi summary judgment. Her order vacated the CFTC’s 22 September 2023 order barring Kalshi from listing its congressional control contracts.

According to Finance Magnates, the judge found that Congress had not authorised the CFTC to carry out the public-interest review behind the ban. The CFTC appealed & secured a temporary stay, but the appeals court later lifted it, so Kalshi could offer election contracts while the appeal was pending.

In May 2025 the CFTC asked the D.C. Circuit to dismiss its appeal, following a 3-0 commission vote with one commissioner abstaining. Finance Magnates reports that the advocacy group Better Markets called the move “a stark betrayal of the public interest”.

On 4 February 2026, the CFTC announced it had withdrawn its “Event Contracts” rule proposal, published on 10 June 2024. CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig said that proposal had included “an outright prohibition on political contracts”. The CFTC said it does not intend to issue final rules on the proposal & plans a new rulemaking.

Where you can’t trade them

Separately, some states have challenged Kalshi under their own gambling laws. On 28 August 2026, KOLO reported via the Associated Press that a 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals panel had refused to let Kalshi restart sports & election trading in Nevada while it challenges the state.

The panel sent the question of Kalshi’s election contracts back to a lower court to consider Nevada’s challenges. Meanwhile, according to Kalshi, trading on sports, entertainment & election contracts is blocked in Nevada.

The same report says roughly 20 states are in litigation over prediction markets such as those run by Kalshi, Polymarket & Robinhood. It notes that the 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals had ruled earlier in 2026 that New Jersey could not regulate Kalshi. That split raises the likelihood that the US Supreme Court will eventually decide the question.

Are election markets accurate?

One body of evidence comes from the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). A 2008 study by Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson & Thomas Rietz compared IEM vote-share forecasts with 964 national polls across the five presidential elections from 1988 to 2004.

The market was closer to the eventual two-party vote split 74% of the time. The authors also found the market significantly outperformed polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days ahead.

That evidence has limits. It covers presidential vote-share markets, not midterm chamber-control or single-race contracts. The authors also note that most earlier research compared only election-eve forecasts.

Manipulation is a stated concern. Better Markets argued, as Finance Magnates reports, that betting on election outcomes threatens electoral integrity & could lead to market manipulation.

Election-night guide

Kalshi’s overview says control of Congress is likely to come down to a few key races. It names Senate contests in Texas, Maine & Ohio as important to whether Republicans keep the chamber.

Kalshi also cites the Cook Political Report’s mid-September list of seven Senate toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio & Texas. Five of those seats are held by Republicans & two by Democrats.

Kalshi says its prices change immediately as new information arrives. The sources do not describe how election contracts treat a media projection, so a reader cannot assume a race ‘call’ settles a market.

Questions

When are the 2026 midterm elections?

The general elections take place on Tuesday 3 November 2026. The new Congress begins on 3 January 2027, according to Kalshi & Ballotpedia.

How many Senate seats are up in 2026?

Ballotpedia says 35: 33 regular seats plus special elections in Florida & Ohio. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win a majority.

Why can Kalshi list election contracts?

On 6 September 2024, a federal judge in Washington, D.C. vacated the CFTC’s 2023 order barring Kalshi’s congressional control contracts. The CFTC moved to drop its appeal in May 2025, & on 4 February 2026 it withdrew a 2024 proposal that had included a ban on political contracts.

Can election contracts be traded in Nevada?

According to Kalshi, as reported on 28 August 2026, trading on election contracts is blocked in Nevada. A 9th Circuit panel sent the election-contract question back to a lower court.

Do prediction markets beat polls?

In a study of the 1988 to 2004 presidential elections, Iowa Electronic Markets forecasts were closer to the result than 74% of 964 polls. The study did not cover midterm chamber-control markets.

Sources

Sources checked 10 October 2026. Information only. 18+.

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