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Are prediction markets legal in the US? How the state fight stands
Whether a US prediction market is legal depends on your state & the type of contract. This guide sets out the federal case, the states' case, the court…
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Guides: how prediction markets work, sourced & checked.
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Sports event contracts explained: bets, swaps or both?
Sports is now the most traded topic on Kalshi & Polymarket, the two leading prediction markets, according to Pew Research Center. This guide sets out what sports event…
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Kalshi vs Polymarket: regulation, fees, markets & access compared
Kalshi & Polymarket are the two leading prediction markets, but they reached the US market by different routes & charge, fund & face regulators differently. This guide sets…
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How prediction markets work: contracts, prices & payouts
A prediction market contract pays $1 if its yes/no question resolves your way & $0 if not, & its price reflects what traders will pay now. This guide…
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2026 midterm election markets: how to read the odds
A plain-language guide to the markets on the 3 November 2026 US midterms. It covers the races, the federal legal history & the evidence on whether election markets…
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How to read prediction market prices as probabilities
A prediction market price is often reported as a percentage chance. This guide explains where that reading comes from, which price is shown, how fees shift break-even &…
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How on-chain prediction markets work, from collateral to the CFTC
On-chain prediction markets run on blockchains & settle in stablecoins, but a company can still define & resolve the contracts. This guide covers collateral, order books, Myriad's move…
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How prediction markets resolve & how disputes are settled
A prediction market is settled by its written rules, not its title. This guide explains Kalshi's process, UMA's proposal-&-dispute system, two disputed markets, & CFTC staff views on…