Prediction market volume up 2,300% since 2023 as rules stay unclear
Kalshi & Polymarket alone handled 89% of the total, data firm Artemis reports.
The hit
Prediction markets have traded $409.7bn across roughly 2.6 billion trades so far in 2026, according to data firm Artemis. The surge has sharpened a legal fight over whether sports-event contracts count as federally regulated derivatives or state-regulated gambling, with appeals courts reportedly handing down conflicting rulings.
Why it matters
The split matters because it decides who referees the market. The CFTC maintains that qualifying event contracts fall within its regulatory authority, while states argue sports-related contracts should remain subject to gambling laws, according to FinanceFeeds.
The record
| 2026 trading volume | $409.7bn (Artemis) |
|---|---|
| 2023 trading volume | $16.8bn across 31.9m trades (Artemis) |
| Volume growth, 2023-2026 | Up more than 2,300% (Artemis) |
| Market concentration | Kalshi & Polymarket hold 89% of volume, $364.7bn, & 97% of trades |
| Platform count | Grown from 4 venues in 2023 to more than 11, including Hyperliquid’s HIP-4 |
What happens next
Watch for further appeals court rulings, & the CFTC’s June 2026 proposed rule on event-contract economic utility, which could let some sports contracts qualify.
Sources: Prediction Markets Hit $410B as CFTC and States Clash
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