Becerra refunds Kalshi & Underdog as his odds hit 96%
Kalshi’s California lobbying spend hit $62,000 in the first half of 2026 on three Assembly bills, filings show.
The hit
Xavier Becerra is refunding campaign donations from the same prediction market firms taking bets on his election, according to DeFi Rate. His latest filing shows he returned the maximum contributions from Kalshi & Underdog Sports Holdings, first flagged by attorney Daniel Wallach on X.
Why it matters
Traders will keep pricing the race regardless of the refund, but the episode sharpens scrutiny of platforms donating to candidates they also list as tradable contracts. With attorneys general & governors shaping prediction markets’ ability to operate nationwide, sceptics will argue the industry is shaping the very political system it claims only to track, according to DeFi Rate.
The record
| Kalshi donation to Becerra | $39,200, refunded (campaign finance filing) |
|---|---|
| Underdog Sports Holdings donation to Becerra | $50,000, refunded (campaign finance filing) |
| Becerra odds on Kalshi & Polymarket | 96% on both platforms, up from ~74% on Kalshi in late May |
| Kalshi California governor market volume | ~$72m traded |
| Polymarket California governor market | $41m traded |
| Kalshi California state lobbying, H1 2026 | $62,000 on three Assembly bills |
What happens next
Watch for further campaign finance filings in California’s governor race & any regulatory response to the lobbying totals, including the $3m-plus combined spend by Kalshi, Polymarket & the Coalition for Prediction Markets tracked by OpenSecrets across 2026.
Sources: Becerra refunds prediction markets donations as California governor odds soar
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