UNC’s hot seat: Belichick fired-by-February odds hit 56%

Florida State’s Mike Norvell, USC’s Lincoln Riley & Clemson’s Dabo Swinney all price higher than Belichick on the exit board.

The hit

Kalshi traders price a 56% chance Bill Belichick is fired or gone from North Carolina by 1 February, according to SI. That’s lower than this season’s highs above 75%, with the Tar Heels off to a 2-2 start after a 4-8 finish last year.

Why it matters

Belichick’s price still trails only Florida State’s Mike Norvell, USC’s Lincoln Riley & Clemson’s Dabo Swinney on Kalshi’s coaching hot-seat board. Traders aren’t just pricing a sacking: ESPN’s Heather Dinich has floated retirement, & Belichick turns 74 in April, the oldest coach in the sport.

The record

Kalshi ‘out by February’ price	56% yes, 68% no (Kalshi)
Season high this year	Over 75% at several points (SI)
2025 finish	4-8 record, second-worst offence at 19.3 points per game (SI)
2026 start	2-2, offence up to 25.0 points, defence down to 20.3 allowed (SI)
Remaining schedule strength	Third toughest in the ACC, eight of nine foes at .500 or better (SI)

What happens next

Kalshi settles the market by 1 February. North Carolina’s next test comes against No. 3 Notre Dame, part of a run where three of four upcoming opponents are unbeaten.

Sources: Kalshi Tabs Bill Belichick Among Coaches Most Likely to Be Fired

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