Polymarket US beats Kalshi’s launch-week 15-min Bitcoin volume by 406x
Polymarket US’s new 15-minute Bitcoin markets far outpaced Kalshi’s own launch week, according to DeFi Rate.
The hit
Polymarket US’s new 15-minute Bitcoin markets took in $91.76m during their first full week, according to DeFi Rate. That is more than 400 times what Kalshi managed in its own first full week after launching the same format last year. Trading activity, not bigger individual trades, drove the surge.
Why it matters
The numbers suggest traders are adopting the short-duration format quickly rather than a handful of large bets inflating the total. DeFi Rate cautions Polymarket US could still level off from here.
The record
| Polymarket US BTC volume before launch (Sept 15-21) | $624,904 (DeFi Rate) |
|---|---|
| Polymarket US total BTC volume, first full week (Sept 23-29), ~162x the prior week | $101.19m (DeFi Rate) |
| Polymarket US 15-min BTC volume, first full week | $91.76m (DeFi Rate) |
| Daily 15-min BTC volume growth, Sept 23 to Sept 29 | $2.40m to $27.71m (DeFi Rate) |
| Kalshi 15-min BTC volume, first full week after its launch | $226,000 (DeFi Rate) |
| Kalshi crypto volume, Sept 1-28 | $8.17bn, 86% from 15-min markets (DeFi Rate) |
What happens next
Watch whether Polymarket US’s volume keeps climbing or levels off. DeFi Rate notes Kalshi’s 15-minute markets kept growing for months after launch without displacing its one-hour product, which rose from about $3.2m to $15.8m a day.
Sources: Polymarket US 15-Minute Bitcoin Volume Hits $92M in First Full Week
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