Raman flips to 60% in LA mayor race as $98m trades on Kalshi

Polymarket prices the race near-identically but with less than a sixth of Kalshi’s volume.

The hit

Nithya Raman has overtaken Karen Bass as favourite in the Los Angeles mayor’s race, according to DeFi Rate. The flip follows a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll putting Raman ahead of Bass. Bass’s campaign has dismissed the poll as an outlier.

Why it matters

A 60% price makes Raman the favourite but leaves Bass a real chance, especially with 33% of likely voters still undecided. Polymarket shows nearly identical odds to Kalshi, with a fraction of the volume, suggesting the shift is not confined to one venue. Some of those undecided voters backed Spencer Pratt in the primary. Among Pratt’s primary backers who have picked a finalist, Bass leads 22% to 16%. The market has moved on one poll, not a settled electorate.

The record

Kalshi price for Raman	60% to win, $98m traded (Kalshi)
Polymarket price	near-identical odds, $14.7m traded (Polymarket)
Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll	Raman 39%, Bass 28%, Sept 15-20, 2,150 likely voters, ~3-point margin of error
June primary result	Bass 34%, Raman 29%, Spencer Pratt 26%
Bass unfavourability	63% of poll respondents view her unfavourably
Palisades fire response rating	56% rated Bass’s response poor or very poor

What happens next

Mail ballots begin going out Oct 1. Bass & Raman debate on Oct 13, giving Bass a chance to challenge Raman before the Nov 3 election.

Sources: Raman Overtakes Bass in LA Mayor Prediction Markets

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